As producers are trying to put the final touches on seeding, the soybean/corn price ratio is not only useful for comparing relative profitability but also for providing an early warning sign of what to expect in the June 30 USDA Acreage report. The current level of 2.60 (as seen on the accompanying chart) certainly does support the notion that more land should have gone into soybeans at the expense of corn this year.

As previously mentioned, the soybean/corn price ratio is simply the price of soybeans divided by the price of corn. It is designed to represent the profit potential advantage of one crop compared to the other, thereby impacting seeding decisions. The market's reaction since the planting intentions report and the impact on the ratio is important in predicting what to expect for final seeded area.

As a refresher, the benchmark used for decades as the tipping point has been a ratio of 2.5 (see the blue line on the attached chart). For example, $10 soybeans/$4 corn = 2.5 with no expected impact on acres based on profitability factors in such a case. A higher value suggests soybeans will be favored and a value below 2.5 suggests corn acres should rise (at the expense of soybeans).

Many believe that benchmark is somewhat obsolete given the rising costs associated with growing corn over the past few years, especially fertilizer (especially now) and the increased interest on that outlay. It may be petty, but I think a value closer to 2.3 is more likely the current tipping point (see the red line on the attached chart).

Regardless, it is much easier to interpret when it is clearly above 2.5 (like 2023-24 for example, that led to the large soybean area in 2024) or clearly below 2.3 (early 2024-25 for example, that led to the record corn area in 2025).

As you can see by the accompanying chart, 2026 looks like a slam dunk for a large shift in those flex acres back to soybeans using the ratio of 2.3 as the tipping point (but even using 2.5). The jump in soybean prices in early 2026 thanks to expectations for a surge in soybean crush requirements to feed record-setting biofuel demand sent the ratio up to 2.70 -- suggesting producers would likely swing heavily back into soybeans this year. With the volatility of the spring, it pulled back to just over 2.5 but still favors soybeans, oscillating around 2.6 for most of the year to date.

As a refresher, USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report suggested corn area will fall to 95.3 million acres from 98.8 million acres last year while soybean area will increase to 84.7 million acres in 2026 from 81.2 million acres last year. This analysis suggests the shift in area could be even more extreme (albeit in the same direction) in the final acreage report (on June 30).

Just to be clear, when I am referring to flex acres, they are merely those fields that are not pre-determined based on non-economic factors such as crop rotations, soil conditions, disease or insect limitations, that sort of thing. It is not a program phrase (clarifying mostly for our Canadian friend's sake).

And, of course, for our Canadian followers, this analysis is just as crucial given the impact it will have on our canola and feed grain values for the year to come.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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