Crops here in southwestern Ontario are marching backwards at least for the time being. I mentioned last week that we are parched dry and really haven't had any significant rain since June. However, there is rain predicted for this weekend, and I'm very hopeful that it comes to fruition. I've had crops march backwards before right into harvest time and it is never something I look forward to. Hopefully, the rains come and hope will spring eternal after that.

We shall see. It has been no secret during the last little while that the heat dome and drought in Europe combined with a possible similar outlier here in North America might send prices higher. However, with a renewed forecast here of lower temperatures and more rain, that seemingly sent crop prices down during the past week. I say seemingly because, as always, with grain futures prices it is always hard to know. However, as much as we don't want grain fundamentals to matter, there were many dry areas across the American Midwest that needed a drink, especially up in the Northern Plains. It seems like a lot of grain speculators are depending on the same rain that I am this weekend.

Or, you might say, something like that. It is so hard to know, especially at this time of year when weather is critical to crop development. Since July 24, we have seen soybean prices retreat about $0.70 a bushel and corn retreated about $0.25 a bushel. So, there has been quite a reaction in the market due to whatever is happening. Keep in mind the Trump administration renewed tariffs on everybody this past week after their 10% tariff levy put on earlier ran out. This effectively raised tariffs on China goods coming into the United States. That alone did not bode well for increasing Chinese purchases of soybeans. Maybe, just maybe, the Chinese walked away on July 24 not liking the way they were treated.

At the same time, we have had renewed fighting in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the United States. This one is truly putting a casino-type volatility into our grain markets. Much of it has to do with the tremendous uncertainty you get from missiles flying into each other's bases one night only to have a ceasefire declared the next and vice versa. Oil prices are still elevated at $83 a barrel, down from $93.50 a barrel last week. There is great synergy between oil prices and grain prices, and this surely will continue as long as the war continues.

Which brings us back to grain fundamentals for a minute. One rule that we have with regard to grain prices is how much August has to do with soybean prices. Soybeans might be the great liars, but when they get rain in August, they usually do quite well. Take my soybeans for instance right now. They have not had rain since June and on much of my heavier ground they look fairly decent. If they get rain this weekend, I would not be surprised if they take off like a rocket and by the end of August look outstanding. Ditto for the rest of the soybeans across the U.S. Corn Belt and Northern Plains.

My corn, on the other hand, might be already hurt because of the heat and drought in southwestern Ontario. However, it is still relatively early in the cycle and rain would mitigate much of that. Yes, corn futures have followed soybeans on the way down and the same could be said for European corn futures. They fell for the sixth straight session Thursday with profit taking after three-year highs were made through July. On the contrary, USDA reduced corn crop conditions in the U.S. four percentage points this past week and soybeans were down three percentage points. All eyes will look at weather conditions for the coming week, as well as where the price of oil goes.

Wheat prices are jittery mainly because of the problems in Ukraine and Russia. For instance, wheat prices are down from a week ago but not as much comparatively versus corn and soybeans. In fact, on Thursday morning wheat prices were off to the races because there was a report of Ukrainian drones that damaged a grain processing facility in Russia. Expect this to continue; in fact, it's just another day in the wheat market.

You can make an argument it's just another August in the grain markets, too. However, keep in mind during the last few weeks we have had a few bullish cards to play. We are very used to the grain fundamentals pushing prices down at this time of year into harvest. This year was different because of all these diverse geopolitical events affecting grain logistics. Prices were simply higher than the last two years. Lots of standing marketing orders hit.

So here we are, a month from now I'll probably be talking about September. The challenge ahead for farmers will be to continue to hone your marketing plan. There will be plenty of noise between now and then -- changing weather forecasts, geopolitical surprises and grain markets reacting to every headline. The grain markets will continue to surprise us, but that is nothing new. Daily market intelligence will remain key. There likely will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead.

**

The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.