The years have passed very quickly, but I think as my combine rounded into the last six rows of corn this past week, it represented the 45th time that I have finished a corn crop since I started full time out of college. I don't remember much from those days in 1981, but I do know the corn yields are a lot higher than they used to be. This past year I didn't have record yields in the corn fields, but it was above average.

Productivity gains are our "raison d'etre" as Canadian farmers. In other words, without big yields, it is very difficult to be profitable in today's agricultural economy. We do not have the American farmer subsidy theme park coming from government. So, let's hope for even better weather next year to keep the agricultural vicious cycle of efficiency going.

I'm not so sure about the rest of Ontario when it comes to yield. With eastern Ontario not suffering a devastating drought this year, I am sure Ontario yields will be very healthy. However, we are seeing some problems with high DON levels in some specific hotspots around the province. Hopefully it will be an issue that will be able to be managed.

On the other hand, we had a USDA WASDE report released Nov. 10. These reports are always significant because our grain algorithms are programmed to trade them. You might remember last month when the October report actually raised yields, and we had a further meltdown in grain prices. This time it was a bit different, with USDA actually reducing corn yield down to 179.6 bushels per acre, but they also raised soybean yield up to 53.3 bushels per acre. This had the brief effect on report day of actually double-digit gains in the grains, something that has been very rare since the 1st of September.

Last month, USDA had set yield at 181.2 bushels per acre, so a cut was really not expected. This put production now at 15.893 billion bushels, down from 16.034 billion bushels last month. Keep in mind those are incredibly high levels, with last year being the biggest in history. The beginning stocks for the corn crop came in at 2.095 billion bushels, with the 2026/27 crop ending stocks lowered to 1.758 billion bushels. Total corn usage comes in at 16.255 billion bushels; an astronomical figure compared to back in the day when your loyal scribe harvested his first corn crop.

Soybeans weren't very good liars this year. USDA, after raising the yield estimate, pegged production at 4.574 billion bushels of soybeans, up 12 million bushels from last month. The domestic ending stocks came in at 300 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from October. USDA continues to anticipate Brazilian production to come in at 186 MMT of soybeans, with Argentina being predicted at 50 MMT. Needless to say, soybeans, despite the increase in production, went up $0.36 on report day. Unfortunately, nothing has changed much in the wheat production paradigm. Wheat prices have been in trouble the last several weeks.

USDA reports can serve as a lightning rod for many farmers, and 2026 was kind of a commercial for that. We had the big run-up in August, which we don't usually have, and then seemingly it was USDA reports that took prices back down. In that kind of scenario, you would expect that the November report would just make it worse, but for corn they actually cut production. It's hard to square the circle on how some of this makes sense.

In retrospect, we know that geopolitical concerns were part of the equation in raising prices this past summer. We also know that when our grain trading algorithms became a little bit more comfortable with the war situation, speculators in the grain market started exiting their positions over a period of weeks. I guess I'd ask the question of whether it's possible the November WASDE might finally put a stop to that and lead us on to better things to come. Of course, the answer is blowing in the wind and may largely depend on geopolitical tensions in the next few weeks. Clearly, there is an abundance of grain almost everywhere.

Remember that bone-drying drought they had in Europe this past summer? France produced about half as much corn as they usually do, and with that you can expect Ontario corn to increasingly be a player in the European market. We have been shipping there in the last few weeks, and surely this will continue; however, as always, keep in mind that it might be a domestic price victory, but at the same time it means that you are competing with the cheapest corn in the world, and if you are winning, that means your corn is the cheapest in the world. Needless to say, Ontario and Quebec grain needs a home somewhere, and if we can't utilize it domestically, hopefully it'll find a home amid the high seas.

As we move ahead, we'll see what November brings. After 45 corn harvests, I've learned that every year brings its own challenges and opportunities. Here's hoping the next growing season brings us better weather, better prices and a more peaceful world.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

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