It is that time of year when your loyal scribe gets "on the land." That's exactly what happened Thursday when I hit the autosteer button to do some preliminary spraying in front of planting corn in a day or two. We have precipitation coming in southwestern Ontario in the next three or four days, so corn planting might be held up. However, first things first, I still need to get that nitrogen on my soft red wheat crop.

Hopefully I'll get that done Friday, followed by a nice warm rain. Just so happens my wheat is on my heaviest ground and rainy weather during the last three weeks has made it a little bit antsy with regard to getting an applicator rolling.

What I find particularly interesting about my wheat crop these days is the $0.76 rise in a bushel of wheat during the last five trading sessions. My goodness, what is happening in the Ontario world?

I'd like to pretend that there is a lot going on, but I don't really think there is. What we're seeing is that those non-commercial players who have added to their short positions with so much gusto during the last several months are suddenly covering their shorts. The wheat fundamentals are still very bearish, so it is all a bit hard to figure out. However, that Canadian dollar fluttering between 72 and 73 cents US continues to be a stimulus for Ontario wheat prices.

The challenge for Ontario wheat producers is to not be crossways with the trend and prices. For instance, it is no secret the wheat prices have been moribund during the last year. So, it is understandable that we get excited with such a big rise in the wheat price in such a short time. Maybe we'll even get a little bit greedy by not contacting any because we want to hit a marketing home run. Unfortunately, the market fundamentals are still quite bearish.

In fact, sometimes I think that you could say that almost any time when it comes to wheat. Remember, it is the cockroach of grains -- so hard to kill and grown almost everywhere. Often, when there is a shortfall in one region, it is filled so quickly by another region. I've often said that wheat is planted or harvested in every month of the year somewhere around the world. In other words, wheat supply is always vibrant but geographically diverse. It makes you think that there will be all kinds of wheat suppliers around the world trying to capture that $0.76 a bushel gain in the price of wheat during the last week.

Who's to say that wheat won't go up or down another $0.76 in the next five trading sessions? As all of you know, my mantra with regard to grain prices is that nobody knows what will happen. We simply have to look at the different market factors and understand how they affect the wheat price. In Ontario, this year we're expecting about 1.8 to 2 million metric tins (mmt) of wheat which should be down from the 2.7 mmt produced last year. Of course, getting there will surely be an adventure.

Wheat is one of the few crops in Ontario that we expose to four different seasons. Many of us try to harvest our soybeans early to get that wheat in early which usually guarantees the biggest yields. Then we go through winter and spring hoping for better things. And because wheat responds to management, we split our nitrogen application and apply fungicides and growth regulators and who knows what else. When harvest time rolls around, we find out that the processors have problems with something called the "falling number". In other words, after we expose the crop to four different seasons, we could actually lose the crop on the grading table. That will certainly take that $0.76 away in a big hurry.

I was reminded today from one of my farmer colleagues that he is looking for a black swan. I asked him to help me out with that, as I was wondering what he was thinking. He responded by telling me he didn't have a clue. For those of you that don't know, a black swan is an unusual market event that comes out of nowhere to affect prices. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was a black swan event and the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (more commonly known as mad cow disease) in Canada quite a few years ago was another. Overnight, prices can skyrocket or drop depending on the type of black swan event. With regard to wheat, I just can't see that. However, who am I? A black swan even could arrive at any time.

So, as we move ahead into a new week, let's hope we all hit that autosteer button with hope in our soul. Maybe that rise in wheat prices is a harbinger of things to come. Maybe not. There is a world of production risk ahead.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

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