It has been quite a week since I talked to you last. We had a limit up move in wheat: How often does that happen? Then, of course, we have U.S. President Donald Trump meet with the Chinese President Xi Jinping in a long-delayed meeting between the leaders of the world's top economies. Of course, included in the American entourage were a plethora of billionaire business executives doing what they do and surely there must have been some agricultural people, too. Unfortunately, the news out of the conference wasn't too bullish for grains which retreated aggressively Thursday.

Of course, this story is not over. We all know that we have been discussing during the last few weeks the effects of social media and daily headlines with our trading algorithms. Much of the run up in grains prices was due to that and it surely will continue. At a certain point in the future (possibly Friday) we may hear of the greatest deal ever made in China with regard to agricultural commodities. The algorithms soak that up by osmosis. Increasingly it makes market action difficult to decipher.

This past week, we heard from the USDA when it released its May 12 USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports. This was USDA's first detailed look into crop production for the 2026-27 crop year. USDA is predicting new crop corn to be 15.995 billion bushels (bb) based on the yield guess of 183 bushels per acre (bpa). This was within pre report estimates and if it comes to fruition, it will be the second-largest corn crop on record trailing only last year's 17.02-billion-bushel blockbuster. The planted acreage is set to come in at 95.3 million acres with harvested acreage projected at 87.4 million acres. It really wasn't a big surprise regarding these fundamental numbers.

One of the numbers that always fascinates me with regards to corn utilization is the usage number which came in at 16.205 bb of corn. I can remember many times in my career writing about the total crop but seeing a usage number of that magnitude still strikes me as incredible. It makes for a tall bar every year to boost production just to satisfy that demand. At a certain point, when Mother Nature doesn't play nice, we will fall short, and prices will skyrocket upward trying to ration demand.

However, we live in a world where that seemingly never happens.

On the soybean side of the equation, we got some rather normal numbers of 4.435 bb of soybeans with a trendline yield of 53 bpa and 84.7 million acres. This will be the second largest soybean crop in U.S. history. U.S. domestic soybean stocks are set to come in at 310 million bushels (mb), which was on the bottom end of the pre report estimates. The Brazilians are set to produce another 186 million metric tons (mmt) crop of soybeans and the Argentinians are set to come in at 48 mmt.

What's this all say? Well, it says that there's grain everywhere and there will not be a supply problem once again in 2026-27. It should mean lower prices and that certainly manifested Thursday where we saw the July soybean contract go down 3.9%. On the contrary, the November contract fell 34.75 cents before closing 24.25 cents lower on the day. Let's just say there's a lot of moving pieces right now with crop going in the ground. When you add all the social media bluster from the Chinese/American meeting into the mix, price action certainly can be combustible in both directions.

Keep in mind that the May WASDE report implies there is grain everywhere but at the same time not so much with wheat. I know that wheat has been the whipping boy of agricultural commodities for several years because it's grown everywhere and is usually cheap. However, in the May USDA report it said that all wheat production was down to 1.561 bb, and this was 170 mb below trade estimates. The HRW wheat was estimated at 515 mb which is nearly 290 mb below last year. So, for whatever reason, we went up the limit last week, but keep in mind most U.S. wheat is still priced out of global markets. At the moment, it's a U.S. phenomenon seeing this wheat price higher; at a certain point, it will likely disappear.

As we spread fertilizer for another day, at least price action of the last few weeks has given us some grain pricing opportunity. Market orders need to retune on a daily or weekly basis. The Grain Farmers of Ontario's estimate of planting put corn planting at 52% complete, soybeans are at 16% complete, and spring cereals planting is 62% complete across the province as of May 13. I'm starting soybean planting shortly. I hope to only plant them once, but it seems every year I plant some of them two and three times.

The challenge for Ontario and Quebec farmers is to measure our risk moving forward in this unusual grain marketing environment. There will be more limit up and limit down moves. Somewhere between the algorithms, the geopolitics and the weather forecasts lie the truth of our marketplace, but finding it is becoming increasingly demanding. In the end, we still farm under the same old rules. Crops need rain, markets need patience and profitable opportunities need to be captured when they appear.

**

The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

Follow him on social platform X @Agridome

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.