WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit the U.S. on Sept. 24 for a one-day summit over war sanctions and artificial intelligence, but the Chinese government said recently it must "overcome obstacles" before a meeting is finalized.

The summit is expected to focus heavily on tensions surrounding the war in Iran and regulation of high-dollar technology. But for agriculture, the meeting could offer another test of China's commitments to buy U.S. soybeans and an opportunity to discuss new restrictions and tariffs on drones.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week that both countries need to "focus on the positive agenda, properly manage differences, remove interference and overcome obstacles to high-level exchanges between the two countries."

The reported one-day summit and state dinner would follow two meetings between Trump and Xi, one in May held in China, and the other on Oct. 30 -- the Busan Summit, which took place in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of Trump's Asia trip.

The meeting also comes as the U.S. and other nations push China to take a larger role in addressing the war with Iran and participate in financial sanctions. China, Tehran's largest trading partner, also faces concerns over disruptions to oil supplies.

Trump views the talks with China as a competition over computing hardware and technology. "Whoever wins that race is probably going to win, period," he said in August.

For agriculture, however, the timing of the meeting coincides with the start of a new soybean marketing year and growing expectations that China will continue purchases under commitments, not agreements, made at previous meetings.

SOYBEAN TRADE, GRADUAL

It has been nearly a year since the Busan Summit, when China committed to purchase 12 million metric tons (mmt) of U.S. soybeans.

Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said that last marketing year's commitment appears to have been met, with 12.35 mmt shipped to date.

Whether the 12-mmt commitment applied to the calendar year or marketing year had been unclear. DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said that passing the 12-mmt mark by the end of August "seems too close to be a coincidence," suggesting the commitment followed the marketing year.

The soybean marketing year ended Aug. 31, with the new marketing year beginning Sept. 1. The next benchmark is 25 mmt during the upcoming 2026-27 marketing year.

Private exporters also reported sales of 202,000 metric tons (mt), or 7.4 million bushels (mb), of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year as of Sept. 2.

"China is probably at about a third of that 25-mmt commitment in terms of purchases, and that is kind of a mix of what is declared to be a Chinese destination, and also some of the unknown destinations, because those oftentimes turn out to be China," Sutter told DTN.

The purchases appear to show China is following through, much as it did with the earlier 12-mmt commitment, he explained. But neither the 25-mmt soybean target nor the separate $17 billion agricultural purchasing commitment are a part of a publicly released trade agreement.

For soybeans, Montgomery expects demand will remain very strong, seasonally speaking. "We are just getting into the peak time for new-crop sales, which tends to continue until late in the year through harvest while U.S. prices are typically the most competitive offer in the world," he said.

The timing could make increased soybean sales an important signal ahead of a potential Xi visit.

"I imagine by the time we get to maybe the second half of September, October when we have new-crop soybeans flowing, we'll see more regular shipments going on to China as they fulfill that commitment," Sutter said.

Beyond soybeans, China also committed to purchase $17 billion in U.S. agricultural products.

There had been hopes that China would resume significant U.S. corn purchases this summer, particularly as USDA forecasts tighter ending stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year. Those purchases have yet to materialize.

"Looking at other commodities is where the agreement thus far could be seen as disappointing to some," Montgomery said. Traders had expected wheat, corn, DDGS, beef and other commodities to contribute to the broader purchasing commitment. Sorghum and forestry products were singled out during the October meeting, and both have seen improved sales and shipments in 2026. But corn, wheat, cotton, beef and pork remain well below their 2020-23 levels.

"I think the hope from the U.S. government officials is that by the time we get to this Sept. 24 visit, that there will be more progress toward that $17 billion commitment, just like there is progress toward the soybeans commitment," Sutter said.

Current soybean sales are nearly even with late-August 2021 levels, when China ultimately purchased more than 1.1 billion bushels (bb). Future purchases will depend heavily on the price relationship between U.S., Brazilian and Argentine supplies, Montgomery explained.

But the U.S. soybean industry is also focused on reducing its dependence on any single market.

"It is not too big a percentage of our U.S. soy exports because we don't want to be too captive to China. We want to have a good, diversified set of customers," Sutter explained.

DRONES BACK HOME

At the Farm Progress Show last week, agriculture spray drones lined the streets.

Behind the growing presence of drones in agriculture is an escalating race to build a U.S. drone industry as the U.S. and China exchange tariffs, sanctions and export restrictions.

Progressive Farmer Senior Editor Joel Reichenberger reported this summer on the growing push by U.S. companies to increase domestic drone production. See "The Race for the American-Made Drone" here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

In early August, China announced retaliatory sanctions via export controls on drones, key components and related technologies, along with sanctions against six American entities. Beijing now requires case-by-case reviews for certain dual-use drone technologies that can serve both agricultural and military purposes.

It was a reaction to the Federal Communication Commission's ban on newer-model drones in December 2025.

Meanwhile on Sept. 3, Trump's Section 232 trade authority placed 100% tariffs on Chinese drones, increasing the cost of imports. Drones that exceed 25 kilograms and those with thermal imaging capabilities face a 100% tariff, while those under 25 kilograms without thermal imaging capabilities get a 25% rate.

The tariffs and FCC actions represent two separate efforts to encourage domestic manufacturing. The FCC can determine whether a new drone is allowed onto the U.S. market, while tariffs allow an otherwise eligible drone to enter but make it more expensive to import.

Those policies could become part of broader negotiations between the U.S. and China, but Will Dawson, founder of the Agricultural Drones Initiative, isn't holding his breath.

"I don't know that the federal government has a good picture of just how big the ag drone issue is," Dawson said, adding that he doesn't expect it to become a major topic of conversation.

Dawson said the Federal Aviation Administration has accounted for 3,000 registered agricultural drones, though he estimates the actual fleet could range from 30,000 to 50,000. Drones have increasingly been used for pesticide application across large areas of cropland.

He said tariffs could help encourage domestic manufacturing, particularly if companies that present plans to onshore production receive tariff relief. Dawson also said there is bipartisan support in Congress for tariffs on Chinese drones, with national security concerns driving support across the aisle.

Still, agricultural drones are often pulled into the broader debate over military technology -- particularly as the U.S.-China summit is expected to address conflicts in Iran and Ukraine.

"We do think a lot about military stuff because, fundamentally, all quadrotors are pretty much the same," Dawson said.

That creates what Dawson described as an inverse relationship between agricultural and military drone development. "If you take a military drone and use it for ag, it's going to be way overpriced and sort of upside down, but if you use an ag drone and import it to the military, you've got really ruggedized testing standards," he said.

The dispute could accelerate development of U.S. agricultural drone technology, but it also places agriculture in the middle of a broader technology and national security competition between Washington and Beijing.

Another future disruption is the FCC's growing focus on drone software, which could create further upheaval for the industry next summer, Dawson said.

Jake Zajkowski can be reached at jake.zajkowski@dtn.com

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