Due to various factors, harvest time in the Canadian Prairies is very delayed this year. A round of heavy rain in early September didn't help, and now another round of heavy rain is moving through on Monday, Sept. 14. Risks for flooding, lodging of stalks, and sprouting in the fields are elevated after a fairly good summer weather pattern.

A large storm system is moving from Montana through Saskatchewan and Manitoba on Monday. Widespread rainfall is starting to move across the U.S. border into Canada and is forecast to increase over the morning hours. Before the system leaves early on Tuesday, Sept. 15, rainfall amounts are forecast to be fairly widespread in the 20-40 mm (0.8- to 1.6-inch) range. Pockets of heavier rain are expected, as some areas should see thunderstorms increasing the rainfall rates throughout the day. Rain is still set to fall across Alberta but is forecast to be much lighter. Northwestern Saskatchewan may miss the heaviest rains as well.

But this rain is coming at a very poor time. Harvest progress is well behind schedule. Several factors have led to delays in harvest, including late planting, a mild summer and fairly frequent rainfall in early fall. Another round of heavy rain of roughly 30-60 mm (1.2 to 2.5 inches) with isolated heavier amounts fell across the entire region during the weekend of Sept. 4-7. That was noted in provincial crop progress reports last week as a factor in the continued delay to harvest. Manitoba reports that as of Sept. 8, only 28% of this year's crop is in the bin, including just 15% of this year's canola. Saskatchewan is in a similar situation with only 27% of the crop combined as of Sept. 7, with canola at only 9% combined and spring wheat at 13%. Alberta is the laggard at just 18% combined, including just over 2% of canola and 14% of spring wheat. Progress is lagging all three regions by at least a week or, in some cases, two. With so much of this year's crop still in the field, there is a larger risk of issues when it comes to heavy rain.

Delays to progress are expected, but heavy rain can lead to damage due to flooding, softening stalks of a mature crop that leave it susceptible to wind damage. With Monday's system being a fairly strong one, winds are becoming an issue as well. Winds will be increasing throughout Monday and could gust in the 45-65 kph (30-40 mph) range, with some higher gusts possible in thunderstorms. Winds will gradually calm down early Tuesday morning as the low departs. That still brings about some risk for significant wind damage.

With how wet September has been so far, this also leads to issues with sprouting in the field. Late-season wetness and cool temperatures may combine to produce more quality issues with molds and fungus feeding on the ripened seeds as well.

And the rain may not be over. A couple more rounds of showers will be possible this week. It may not be widespread heavy rain like we are seeing here on Monday but could produce problems for area fields that remain uncombined.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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