It is still early but I got my corn planter out the other day and blew the dust off it. Well, not really. My corn planter would take a whole bunch of wind to get the dust blown off it. Every spring I go over my corn planter in detail hoping to identify some problems I hope to avoid. There's nothing worse than downtime during the planting season when you had all kinds of time to prepare.

What I find particularly interesting this spring will be the crop mix going forward. I am talking on the 30,000-foot level with regards to crops both in Ontario and Quebec, as well as the United States. Next week we'll get the USDA's latest indication of how many acres will be planted in 2026. It's always incredibly significant to the market. Will there be any surprises in 2026?

Earlier, at the USDA's February 2026 Agricultural Outlook Forum, corn acreage had been projected to come in at 94 million acres and soybean acreage was projected to come in at 85 million acres. This was a decrease in corn acreage from 98.9 million acres in 2025 and an increase in soybean acres up from 81.2 million in 2025. We all know what happened last year: the biggest corn production in U.S. history topping out at 17.02 billion bushels. The question is, do our American friends have it in them again to top that?

At first glance, I think not. However, keep in mind the market is fluid and there are a lot of smart people saying that U.S. corn acreage will be down and soybeans up. I have a hard time with that. Last year at this time, USDA said U.S. farmers would be planting 95.3 million acres of corn and, of course, we all know that they planted a lot more. In my decades of experience writing about agricultural markets, there is no question the U.S. farmer prefers to plant corn and typically projections usually underestimate that propensity.

Having said that, keep in mind that these are different times, and these are different market conditions. At the present time, we have cash markets in Ontario and Quebec about $0.80 higher for old crop corn and $1.50 higher for old crop soybeans than we did at harvest time. Cash wheat prices are approximately $1.30 a bushel higher than they were a year ago at harvest. This has happened despite grain almost everywhere and let's just call it the "war premium." There is not a lot left to explain why it is this way.

The war premium has also spawned considerable debate not only among farmers but fertilizer salesman on how there may be considerably lower corn acres this spring. This has been accentuated by the recent price spike in nitrogen products as well as fuel, mostly caused by the "war premium", but also several other factors. The bottom line is, as a corn grower in Ontario this year, variable costs will likely be going up several hundred dollars per acre. I can pretend that's not happening, but it is -- and finding a way to get to that harvest finish line in a profitable fashion will need to be creative.

There could be policy options from government to help things. For instance, how about taking the tariffs off the import of Russian fertilizer? Russian fertilizer traditionally has been cheap and of good quality. However, the Canadian government slapped tariffs on this about three years ago when the war started and in the current environment it's doubling down negative on eastern Canadian farmers. Yes, it is a dirty business, but with margins tightening sometimes you have to accept a little water with your wine.

Although I have my issues with the USDA implying that U.S. corn acres will be down this spring, it seems the opposite in Ontario and Quebec. In its March report, Statistics Canada has already predicted Ontario corn acres will be at 2.3 million acres, up 5.4% from 2025. On the other hand, soybeans will also be up at 2.9 million acres, up 0.2% from 2025. In Quebec, corn production will be down 1.5% from 2025 and soybean production will come in at 1 million acres, which will be down 5% from 2025. You might make an argument these projections were made before the war in Iran started and the Strait of Hormuz was closed. All of that was "manna from heaven" for the trading algorithms which raised our farm input prices so quickly.

So, I await the USDA numbers on March 31. Keep in mind, they are being totally overshadowed by the "war premium" this year. With regard to our cash markets, that hasn't been a totally bad thing. Some of you surely have already elected to take some risk off the table. The challenge you will have now is making it all come together to profitably get to the harvest finish line. Daily market intelligence will remain key.

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Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

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