Of all the places to find a detail that needs to be monitored, who would have guessed it would be in Friday's Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings, Production, Consumption and Stocks report out from USDA? But here we are.

When 2.555 billion bushels (bb) of soybeans are crushed in one year (an important record of its own), the soybean oil yield can really make a difference to total production. With it being just as it sounds -- pounds of soybean oil produced per bushel of soybeans crushed -- it doesn't get a great deal of attention. Until it matters, that is, and early indications are suggesting that it might matter this year.

The November Fats and Oils report showed a soybean oil yield of only 11.46 pounds per bushel compared to 11.61 in October and 11.86 pounds per bushel in November 2024.

The decline is not all that surprising given crop stress and smaller seed size typically result in reduced oil content -- but the magnitude of the decline is. As you can see on the accompanying chart, USDA was already expecting a decline from the record high yield set in 2024-25 (of 11.95 pounds per bushel) to 11.80 pounds per bushel for 2025-26 (in green). The problem is, if November was any indication, that will surely need to be revised lower yet. The orange bar represents the same .4 pound/bushel drop seen in November 2025 compared to November 2024. At 11.55 pounds/bushel, it is also close to the 2019-20 crop year average (of 11.51 pounds/bushel) that was hurt by crop stress of its own.

In 2019, a very wet spring led to late seeding, high prevented planting acres and crops getting mudded in. With the shorter growing season and crop stress throughout, the final soybean yield fell from 50.6 bushels per acre (bpa) in 2018-19 to 47.4 bpa in 2019-20. It also resulted in the lowest soybean oil yield since the record-high-yielding soybean crop of 2016-17. Leaving a clear pattern of soybean oil yield related to levels of crop stress.

Monday's USDA reports will be the final say on soybean seed yield, but according to Dow Jones pre-report estimates, traders are still expecting a record yield of 52.7 bpa, up from 50.7 bpa last year and above the 2016 current record of 51.9 bpa. We will know soon enough, but if the oil yield is any indication, the late-season drought may well indicate a disappointing yield estimate come Monday.

Where the oil yield becomes even more significant is when record-setting demand is expected. At 2.555 billion bushels (bb) of soybeans crushed, a further .25 pound/bushel reduction in soybean oil yield from USDA's current estimate for 2025-26 would result in 639 million pounds less soybean oil produced. Considering the December WASDE update was calling for soybean oil ending stocks of 1.726 billion pounds, a lower supply of 639 million pounds would present challenges.

Then there's the export issue facing USDA again. Thursday's U.S. export sales report for the week ended Jan. 1 included another 55 million pounds of soybean oil being sold during the week, taking total soybean oil export commitments to 637 million pounds in just the first three months of the marketing year. USDA is currently expecting an annual total of just 900 million pounds, so it looks like it will be another year of upward revisions in future USDA estimates. As a reminder, last year, USDA was estimating annual exports of 600 million pounds up until the December report. Final soybean oil exports hit 2.5 billion pounds.

From a practical perspective, you can't have supply (production) reduced and demand (exports) increased, given the limited ending stocks, without a major increase in price. As such, USDA will likely cut biodiesel use again (like it did last year) as political interference and multiple distractions keep the Trump administration from doing what it was expected to do to increase biofuel production use. In fact, the entire situation highlighted by this post may be inspiring the delayed progress on that front.

At this point, markets are trading with a "prove it" mentality, so something as boring as a soybean oil yield will not likely move the market as other headlines have, but the entire situation needs to be on the radar. Especially if you're a canola producer hoping to see strong demand for canola oil to keep crushers running at a record pace.

I welcome feedback along with any suggestions for future blogs. My daily comments can be found in Plains, Prairies Opening Comments and Plains, Prairies Quick Takes on DTN products.

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.