Long-range model guidance shows signs of much lower temperatures entering the northern United States after the middle of January. Arctic air from Canada could begin to flow into the Midwest and Great Lakes shortly after Jan. 15, but there is some uncertainty regarding how far south this cold air will flow.

The major shift in the temperature pattern across the lower 48 states will mainly be due to a climate pattern that will reverse near Alaska. Meteorologists call this pattern the Eastern Pacific Oscillation or EPO. Both positive and negative phases are associated with the EPO. When it is in its positive phase, mild Pacific air will flow into the West Coast of North America and as it heads east toward the central United States, it can lead to above-average temperatures. In the EPO's negative phase, an area of higher pressure will block the mild Pacific air from flowing into the West Coast. Instead, the air will flow into Alaska and the Arctic before eventually making its way south into either central Canada or the U.S.

Through Jan. 11-12, the EPO will be in its positive phase, and the central and eastern U.S. will continue to see relatively mild temperatures until at least Jan. 15-16. High temperatures next week could still be in the 40s to 50s Fahrenheit across the southern Midwest with highs consistently reaching the 40s to 60s F across the Southern Plains.

After Jan. 12, the EPO will start shifting to its negative phase. Temperatures aren't expected to instantly cool off in central North America as the EPO turns negative. There is usually a bit of a lag and by Jan. 17-18, conditions will start to trend cooler across the central and eastern U.S. The greatest risk for sub-zero temperatures will extend through the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Low temperatures could consistently approach the 20s to 30s F across Kansas and Oklahoma from Jan. 17-24.

However, uncertainty is highest across the Southern Plains and how far the Arctic air could surge south. Model guidance can struggle at predicting Arctic air getting into this region and if temperatures can consistently get below 32 degrees F for parts of Oklahoma and northern Texas, winterkill in wheat could become a concern.

In addition to the risk for lower temperatures, the storm track could favor the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley or Mid-Atlantic from Jan. 17-24. With colder air anchored in the North during this time, snowfall may be above average across the Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes could see persistent lake-effect snow.

Timing and the location of temperatures near or below 32 degrees F will be the keys for wintry precipitation to occur across the Southern Plains from Jan. 17-24. The temperature forecast will need to be monitored closely for wheat farmers in the Southern Plains. Dry conditions and above-average temperatures over the last few weeks have certainly reduced its hardiness.

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Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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