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Under the Agridome
Philip Shaw 9/12 10:33 AM
Our world seems to be growing a little bit more dangerous. This past week we had some Russian drone incursions onto NATO territory in Poland that had the potential to go the wrong way. I had one producer tell me that he was thinking that markets would be limit up upon this occurrence. Of course, that didn't happen as we've got too much grain everywhere. It also seems like our grain market doesn't factor in anything regarding the Russia-Ukraine war anymore. Simply put, we're in a dangerous world and we will trade grain regardless. We will see if that changes Friday when the USDA releases its latest WASDE report. I think we all know the drill, many of the commodities sleuths are saying we had the driest August on record and that should mean a smaller crop. I should be able to update things next week. Just don't hold your breath. In the meantime, I thought the news of the day in Canadian headlines was very telling. We have known for several weeks now that Prime Minister Mark Carney has had discussions with our provincial premiers on how to change the Canadian economy. This was in a response to diversifying ourselves away from our dependence on the Americans. When he was elected, he made it very clear that we had to do that. Part of that was the development of some very big mega Canadian projects that we could control ourselves. This past week we found out what some of those were. On Thursday Prime Minister Carney unveiled the first five projects that look to become reality. There will be five immediate projects and there might be many more that will be approved before the Grey Cup is played on Nov. 16. They are listed below. 1. Phase Two of LNG Canada in Kitimat, British Columbia 2. The Darlington Nuclear Project in Bowmanville, Ontario 3. The Contrecoeur Terminal Expansion at the Port of Montreal 4. Foran's McIlvenna Bay Copper Mine Project in Saskatchewan 5. Expanding the Red Chris Mine in Northwest B.C. It's an interesting first list with the expansion of the container Port of Montreal being very important to Canadian agriculture. There are all kinds of agricultural commodities from both Western Canada and Eastern Canada which are put in containers at the Port Of Montreal. The hope is to increase this capacity by 60% which is a very good thing especially when you want to add value to each agricultural production unit we can ship in there. Putting our products in containers, as we've done so much before and doing more of it can only be a good thing from an agricultural economic perspective. There are other projects coming which range from wind energy projects in Atlantic Canada, high speed rail in Ontario, carbon capture projects in Alberta and upgrades to the Port of Churchill. Some of these might be announced as Carney said by Grey Cup time. Of course, there are lots of unknowns now, but investing in this big infrastructure will be good for Canadian farmers and Canadian agriculture. It's big bold stuff and it's what's needed especially when we find our U.S. friends are not the reliable partners they have always been. It is also quite a departure for Canada to be looking at things like this based on our new relationship with the partners in North America. Ontario Premier Doug Ford has said publicly that Leader of the Official Opposition Pierre Poilievre needs to work with Carney on these big projects. As you know, we don't do politics here. We'll see if they can work together starting Monday as Parliament resumes in Ottawa. I cannot emphasize enough how much of this is a good thing, but of course it is also taking place at a time when things are pretty rough. It's obvious we have a problem with our U.S. friends on the trade front, but I haven't said too much about the Chinese imposing a 76% tariff on canola seed going to China. When you consider that our biggest customer is the United States and China for our canola, meal and oil it's a huge rupture. Changing our infrastructure in a big way won't help canola farmers right now, but it will at least put us in a position someday to thrive again. I realize all of this has to be paid for along with our increased defense spending. I also realize that not everybody is going to agree with the amount of spending that is going to have to take place to invest in the future of the Canadian economy. So, the road ahead will likely be uneven. However, being prepared for this uneven future is better than not being prepared. The port infrastructure proposed in Montreal as well as the Port of Churchill will certainly pave the way for better opportunities for are vast and diverse Canadian agricultural commodities both in Eastern and Western Canada. At the end of the day, Canadian farmers will simply adjust as we always do. The world might be dangerous, our politics messy and our markets oversupplied, but opportunity is still woven into the fabric of what we produce. These infrastructure projects won't make the cash market better tomorrow morning, but they may give us more resilience down the road. As always, we'll market grain in the face of uncertainty, counting on our ability to adapt. That's what we've always done, and it's what we'll keep doing, regardless of how the headlines read. ** The views expressed are those of the individual author and not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees. Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca Follow him on social platform X @Agridome (c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved. |
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