LINCOLN, Neb. (DTN) -- U.S. trade relations with Japan and other countries are headed in a direction that could put U.S. agriculture and other businesses on unstable ground, a former U.S. trade negotiator and head of an Asia trade think tank in Washington, D.C., said on Wednesday.

The Trump administration has made a series of trade agreements with Japan and other nations after setting worldwide tariffs to bring other nations to the negotiating table.

Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, who served for 30 years as a diplomat and negotiator in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative as acting deputy at USTR until the end of 2015, said the Trump administration's efforts likely have charted a path on trade that isn't easily reversed.

"I think the next administration, whether it be Republican or Democratic, is going to have a very difficult time lifting these tariffs because the U.S. will get used to them, and particularly those that are benefiting from the tariffs are going to fight tooth and nail not to get them lifted," Cutler said.

Cutler made the remarks during a discussion at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln on Wednesday as part of the Clayton Yeutter Institute of International Trade and Finance lecture series.

That means, she said, future administrations will have a difficult time explaining why tariffs are lifted.

"And that's kind of hard to explain if you're not getting anything in return," Cutler said.

"So, I think we're going to be living in a tariff world for the indefinite future. I think some of the tariffs indeed could be lowered. And we just saw last week, for example, the president lower tariffs on foodstuffs, including cocoa and coffee and bananas and certain fruits and vegetables that we don't even make and grow in the United States. And so, I think there will be some increasing pressure on the administration in the lead-up to the midterm elections, in particular, to provide more exclusions and more exceptions to these high tariffs that are being applied basically to countries all around the world."

Cutler said U.S. farmers and other businesses are likely to continue to see instability when it comes to trade policy. Generally, that kind of uncertainty is challenging to businesses that are considering making longer-term investments, she said.

"I think that whether we like it or not, our president thrives on being unpredictable and uncertain and reading things, announcing things, and acting very quickly and impulsively," Cutler said.

"I'm hopeful that there'll be relatively more certainty, but I think all businesses and farmers and growers they need to be prepared to live in a world of uncertainty when it comes to these tariffs. I hear from companies all the time that they're holding off on making some big investment decisions until there is more certainty. And this is going, unfortunately, to hurt our economy and kind of hurt the economic activity that's taking place in our economy."

JAPAN AG PROVISIONS

As part of the Trump administration agreement, Japan reportedly has agreed to increase its annual purchases of U.S. agricultural products by $8 billion.

In addition, Japan reportedly has agreed to invest $500 billion in the U.S., all in exchange for the U.S. lowering tariffs on Japanese automobile imports from 25% to 15%.

Cutler said the problem is that after the agreement was announced, there were several different versions floating around.

If the $8 billion increase in ag purchases from the U.S. is legitimate, Cutler said, it was a large volume for U.S. farmers, although it's not clear how long Japan is required to make those purchases.

"I think it is significant," she said. "Eight billion of additional agriculture purchases by Japan, particularly at a time when China is reducing its agriculture purchases from the United States, is a significant concession. However, the problem with purchase commitments is they're kind of one-time shots. So, you're not changing the country's practices. You're not asking them to get rid of the barriers. You're basically saying, 'Just go ahead and buy this stuff, and we're not going to look into kind of what the structure of your market is.'"

Cutler said the hope is the agreement will lead to Japan continuing "robust purchases," but there are no guarantees.

Also, Japan agreed that its overall quota on foreign rice purchases would remain the same, except it would increase its purchases of U.S. rice by 75%.

U.S. COMPANIES EXPRESS CONCERN

Cutler said her organization is beginning to hear from U.S. companies that say they're "almost being penalized" because they must pay the U.S. tariffs on imports for their goods.

"So, the automobile industry, for example, is paying a 50% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum, and that really adds to their bottom line," she said.

"And what they arguing is that since Japan and Europe, for example, secured a 15% tariff on autos from the United States, that Japan's in a better position than U.S. auto companies because the Japanese suppliers that are in Japan don't have to pay that tariff."

With traditional trade agreements, Cutler said, there were dispute settlement provisions that allow each country to raise objections when countries were seen as violating the terms.

"But now, in these agreements, including the latest agreement with Japan, there's no dispute settlement mechanism," she said. "And it basically means that the United States is kind of the judge, the jury and the enforcer. So, if the United States believes that Japan is not implementing its commitments, we can just decide that it's not, and the next day, go ahead, let's just say, and increase tariffs back to the 25% for Japan. And I think that contributes to what I would call kind of the fragility of many of these agreements."

DIFFICULTY NEGOTIATING WITH JAPAN

One of the challenges in negotiating trade with Japan, Cutler said, is that its agriculture sector has many built-in protections.

"They have a politically powerful agriculture constituency that doesn't want to open the market, that it feels that if the market is really, truly opened, then they will lose, that they're not globally competitive," she said.

"And so as long as that agriculture interests are politically powerful, then I think this is always going to be kind of an uphill battle with Japan to open the market further. Now, I've always heard this thing, well, the average age of the Japanese farmer, they keep getting older and older, so this is going to end with time. But you know what? It never really ends."

Cutler said the Japanese situation is not unique and that other U.S. trading partners protect their agriculture sectors.

BUYER'S REMORSE

Some countries that have reached individual agreements with the Trump administration are beginning to have buyer's remorse, she said.

"Many of them have gotten a wake-up call, and this is kind of regrettable, and the call basically is telling them don't be overdependent on the United States, either as a market or a source of inputs," Cutler said.

"Because we are becoming an unreliable partner and that they need to diversify their trading partners, they need to diversify the markets where they're selling goods but also diversify the sources of supply. And that means reducing both exports and imports from the United States. And so, we are seeing a lot of trade activity among other countries, not only in the Asia-Pacific region, but frankly all over the world, as they are trying to cement their own trade agreements."

It is quite possible, she said, that this trade atmosphere could "end up really biting" the U.S.

"Because these agreements will have commitments and market opening, but that will be reserved for the participants to the agreement," Cutler said.

"And if the United States -- we're on the outside -- we're not getting those benefits. So, I think over the medium and longer term, we could really end up losing out if we don't find a way to integrate our economy more with other countries around the world."

Cutler said the Trump trade negotiations with Japan back in July were unlike anything she has seen. One of the key differences, she said, is that the U.S. was looking for Japan to make 99% of the concessions while the U.S. "gives very little" in return.

"And when I used to negotiate, let's just say both sides gave," Cutler said. "I mean, typically, the other side gave a lot more, but it was kind of more balanced with respect to concessions. This isn't unique for Japan. This is happening across the board with many countries. And I always get the question: Why would countries, why don't they stand up, why don't they ask for more from the United States?"

Cutler said that's because of the "unpredictability" of Trump and a "fear" that if countries don't cooperate, they're going to be "stuck" with even more tariffs.

"So, I think many countries, including Japan, almost felt like it had no other option but to go ahead and try and negotiate the best deal possible with the United States," she said.

"The other key difference is that when we used to negotiate trade agreements, one of the reasons why they took so long is that they were very detailed, and we put it all in writing. And I'm not going to say that solved any possible misunderstanding or misinterpretation. But it did go a long way in clarifying the commitments for both sides. So, both sides knew what they had signed up for. This time around, there are very few documents. And frankly, many of the documents are just the U.S. interpretation of the deal."

Todd Neeley can be reached at todd.neeley@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @DTNeeley

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.