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Plains, Prairies Quick Takes
Mitch Miller 7/02 11:04 AM

November canola down $.20/mt, December soybean oil is down .26 cents/pound, August European rapeseed is down 3.75 euro/mt and September Malaysian palm oil is down .04%. December oats are up 6 1/2 cents/bushel while November European corn is up 2.50 euro/mt. August crude oil is down $.89/barrel, August ULSD is down $.0413/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is up .00150 at .70730. The September U.S. Dollar Index is down .641 at 100.515 and the July Brazilian real is up .00035 at 0.19095.

Oilseed markets have given up most of their best gains of the session (that were seen in early trade) with most drifting back to around unchanged as midday nears. There is no clear reason for either the early rally or the pullback with there being a possibility that U.S. markets being closed Friday for the July 4 holiday may be impacting strategies.

Grain markets remain strong, still supported by this week's bullish USDA reports and the devastating drought and accompanying heatwave in Europe. The corn market in Europe just set another new contract high on the weather impacts. On the continuous (European corn) chart, prices look like they are just about to leg up and out of a saucer bottom that's been years in the making. A Bloomberg article suggesting France's corn production could fall 30% would provide good fundamental support for such a move.

Outside markets are being influenced by a weaker-than-expected June payroll report out Thursday morning. With just over half of the jobs created versus expectations, treasuries have rallied, resulting in a pullback in interest rates. That has accelerated the selloff in the U.S. dollar (which is likely helping the rally in grain markets). The reaction would likely have been more severe, but the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly as well, down to 4.2% from 4.3% as the participation rate declined. Stocks are mixed with it appearing as though some risk is being taken off ahead of the long weekend. Energy markets remain under pressure, but off their worst levels of the day.

 
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