November canola is down $2.60/mt, December soybean oil is down $0.19 cent/pound, November European rapeseed is down 3.25 euro/mt and October Malaysian palm oil is down 0.26%. December oats are up 5 1/2 cents/bushel while November European corn is down 2.25 euros/mt. September crude oil is up $0.03/barrel, September ULSD is down $0.0843/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is up .00165 at .71535. The September U.S. Dollar Index is down .884 at 99.845 and the August Brazilian real is up .00125 at 0.19730.

Commodity markets in general are more interested in consolidating than anything else it seems. Grains, oilseeds, energies and treasuries are all mixed, digesting recent moves and looking for the next developments. A very weak U.S. dollar and a strong recovery in the stock market are the two main exceptions, with the former theoretically being quite beneficial for commodity markets.

Grains and oilseeds have drifted lower while waiting to see how the forecasted rain for Thursday and Friday turns out, knowing the crop will be under stress for anyone that misses out on meaningful totals. Even wheat has given up half of its overnight gains despite the lack of improvement in the Black Sea region.

Energies are mixed following Wednesday's surge despite word that Saudi Arabia just launched a significant attack on Yemen, which would increase the Houthis' resolve to block the entrance to the Red Sea (and Saudi Arabia's back-door crude export channel). Or Iran's claim to have just hit a U.S. military base in Jordan, damaging up to six F-35s and resulting in casualties, something the U.S. denies. But all developments continue to point to an eventual escalation.

Treasury markets have stabilized following the Fed chair's troubling second FOMC meeting and press conference. Short-term rates are declining (prices increasing) while the 30-year bond remains sharply lower on ideas that inflation is likely to be more of an issue down the road than previously expected, assuming that Warsh is all talk and no action as he appeared to be Wednesday. That left the 30-year bond at a 19-year high overnight at 5.24%. Yet the U.S. dollar has sold off hard, assuming the Fed will not be aggressively raising rates in the short term following Wednesday's outcome.

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