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Plains, Prairies Quick Takes
12/05 11:05 AM

January canola is down $7.50 per metric ton (mt), March soybean oil is up .04 cents/pound, February European rapeseed is up 1.25 euro per mt and January Malaysian palm oil is up 1.10%. March oats are down 3 1/4 cents/bushel. January crude oil is up $.25 per barrel, January ULSD is up $.0568 per gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is up .00450 at .72170. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up .067 at 99.020 and the December Brazilian real is down .00355 at 0.18365.

Canola and soybeans are competing to see who can lead grain and oilseed markets lower now that the regular day session is well underway. Despite a flash sale announcement of 462,000 mt of soybeans sold to China, traders chose to use the resulting bounce to sell into. Deciding to focus on improved rainfall forecasts for Brazil over a dry December forecast for Argentina. Choosing to focus on the difficulties associated with reaching the 12 mmt of soybean sales to China by arbitrary deadlines over sales actually being made and the bar being set so low by the USDA. And likely most importantly, momentum traders choosing to pile onto the short side of soybeans now that the head-and-shoulders top formation looks like it is playing out. That said, today's close will be quite important. A recovery could still negate the top formation.

In the meantime, the pressure on soybeans has been enough to trigger a resumption in selling in canola with Statistics Canada's record production total still weighing. Despite soybean oil remaining slightly higher on a strong rally in diesel futures. Besides that, corn and wheat are only marginally lower.

In outside markets, Treasuries are still weak while equities have managed to hold onto small gains despite the selloff in bitcoin resuming. The U.S. dollar has also been able to stay slightly positive with the help of higher interest rates. The Canadian dollar is sharply higher on a much stronger than expected jobs report for November. Statistics Canada pegged the unemployment rate at 6.5%, down from 6.9% in October and the lowest in 16 months. The economy gained 54,000 jobs, even if most were part-time.

Energy markets are higher, led by diesel, on reports that the G7 and European Union are considering an outright ban on Russian oil exports instead of the current price cap. No sign of progress on peace talks is also helping the rally.

 
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