November canola is down $1.50/mt, December soybean oil is down .68 cents/pound, November European rapeseed is down 4.50 euro/mt and November Malaysian palm oil is closed for holidays. December oats are up 11 cents/bushel while November European corn is up .50 euros/mt. October crude oil is down $3.83/barrel, October ULSD is down $.0700/gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is down .00105 at .72065. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up .069 at 99.410, and the December Brazilian real is up .00030 at 0.19375.

A pullback in energy prices as profit-taking set in (amid a lack of new headlines) following the record-setting run in diesel has weighed on ag markets as well. It doesn't leave the best technical picture as both soybeans and canola came relatively close to making new contract highs overnight before retreating. A close over will be needed to negate the outside reversals lower on Friday while a weak close Wednesday may attract additional selling.

Statistics Canada released its first model-based production estimate of the year, and they couldn't have been much closer to expectations if they tried. Non-durum wheat, oats and soybeans came in slightly lower than the average pre-report estimate while durum wheat, barley, canola, corn, field peas and lentils all came in slightly above. Nothing would be expected to be market moving although oats are sharply higher, extending the fall run on challenging harvest conditions.

Markets in general are waiting for the Fed's next interest rate decision, to be released at 1 p.m. CDT. As mentioned in the opening comments, virtually everyone fully expects a quarter-point increase in the overnight fed funds rate, but it will be what goes along with it at the press conference that will likely impact prices the most. Trump continues to insist on lower interest rates after demanding Powell's replacement would have to be willing to deliver, at the time -- yet inflation has the market now expecting four quarter-point rate hikes over the next year, all while Warsh has stressed that he wants nothing to do with forward guidance. Should he suggest only one increase is necessary, hedges against inflation may become a major market factor as commodity index traders look to buy relatively cheap ag commodities (as a hedge). A second quarter-point rate hike is priced in for the December meeting, a third for the March meeting and now a fourth for the July meeting. Anything different may have dramatic market implications.

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