May canola is down $13.30/mt with July canola down $12.90/mt, July soybean oil is down 1.33 cents/pound, August European rapeseed is down 13.75 euro per mt and June Malaysian palm oil is down 1.21%. July oats are down 12 1/4 cents/bushel. May crude oil is down $11.86 per barrel with June crude oil down $10.24 per barrel, May ULSD is down $.4619 per gallon, and the June Canadian dollar is up .00170 at .73340. The June U.S. Dollar Index is down .285 at 97.740 and the May Brazilian real is up .00050 at 0.20020.

Markets in general reacted violently to a surprise announcement from Iran that the Strait of Hormuz is now open. Energy markets collapsed with May crude oil down over $14/barrel at one point, stocks and bonds soared, the U.S. dollar broke and grain and oilseed markets fell hard as if they had rallied during the war. With cracks already appearing in the celebrations, ag markets have recovered much of their initial losses (in some cases).

It's worth pointing out that on Feb. 27 (last trading prior to the war), July corn closed at $4.56/bushel. Last Friday it closed at $4.5125/bushel (despite the fertilizer and fuel implications). July soybeans closed at $11.8275/bushel on Feb. 27 and $$11.8050/bushel Thursday. July Chicago wheat closed at $5.9875/bushel on Feb. 27 and $5.8075/bushel as recently as last Friday. Soybean oil was the main beneficiary of the spike in energy markets with the July contract closing at 61.89 cents/pound on Feb. 27 and 69.05 cents/pound Thursday. Canola wasn't as strong with the July contract closing at $698.50/mt on Feb. 27 compared to just $718.6 on Wednesday. And the bulk of the gains during the war for the latter two could be attributed to the finalization of the U.S. biofuel blending mandates that were much more favorable than expected. In short, it's not surprising to see grain and oilseed markets claw their way back so quickly with corn and soybeans nearly positive on the day.

As far as the Strait of Hormuz being open goes, it is not yet according to the shipping industry with more questions than answers. Iran claims vessels must pass in coordination with its military, the IRGC, with everyone wanting to know if that still means a toll will be collected. At the same time, Trump insists that the U.S. blockade on Iran exports remains intact until an agreement is "100% complete", something that Iran already claims is unacceptable and will result in the closure of the strait again. And that's not to mention the conflicting messaging over Lebanon, Israel, nuclear enrichment and release of frozen Iranian funds. At this point the celebration seems to be better observed cautiously.

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