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Plains, Prairies Quick Takes
3/06 11:04 AM

May canola is up $6.90/mt, May soybean oil is up .47 cents/pound, May European rapeseed is up 6.00 euros per mt and April Malaysian palm oil is up 3.73%. May oats are up 7 1/2 cents/bushel. April crude oil is up $8.96 per barrel, April ULSD is up $0.0379 per gallon, and the March Canadian dollar is up 0.00475 at 0.73545. The March U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.399 at 98.910 and the March Brazilian real is up 0.00055 at 0.18870.

In case it was missed, we made a sales recommendation Friday morning for 20% of 2025 canola production, with 60% remaining to be marketed.

More specifically, "Following a $140/mt rally in less than three months (based on the nearby active contract -- with the roll premium partly offsetting carrying costs) and a $20/mt improvement in basis levels over that same period, it is prudent to reward the rally as part of a disciplined marketing strategy. With soybean oil and crude oil reaching levels not seen since 2022, and the Trump Administration determined to slow the ascent, it is time to make a sale, considering the volatile nature of the situation. We have not given up on our bullish thesis, but considering the overbought nature of the market, do want to carry on with our strategy of incrementally rewarding rallies."

Otherwise, grain and oilseed markets continue to trade higher on spillover support from surging energy markets and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That said, corn and soybean oil are well off their highs with strong gains remaining for soybeans and wheat.

Crude oil is trading on its high of the day, to levels not seen since 2023, as President Trump continues to call for "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" from Iran in social media posts throughout the morning. His added insistence on having a say in the new leader suggests a lack of a strategic plan that could be executed quickly.

In outside markets, treasuries recovered from early losses following a weak payroll report, while the stock market declined further on the same fundamentals. With the spike in energy prices and the weak payroll report, stagflation is certainly looking like it will be a serious problem. The U.S. dollar index is also lower on the news.

 
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