Hart Acre Grains

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Plains, Prairies Quick Takes

4/23 11:01 AM

May canola is up $6.20/mt with July canola up $5.60/mt, July soybean oil is down .65 cents/pound, August European rapeseed is up 5.75 euro per mt and July Malaysian palm oil is up .07%. July oats are up 4 3/4 cents/bushel. June crude oil is up $1.42 per barrel, May ULSD is up $.0223 per gallon, and the June Canadian dollar is down .00110 at .73240. The June U.S. Dollar Index is up .028 at 98.440 and the May Brazilian real is up .00070 at 0.20165.

There is nothing new to report on the Iran war so far this morning, the impasse remains with no end in sight.

There have been reports out Thursday morning suggesting the U.S. has accused China of "industrial scale" theft of AI systems (according to the Financial Times) and has warned there will be consequences. That would certainly explain the action in the soybean market over the past 24-hours given Trump's trip to China is (supposed to be) fast approaching (May 14-15).

It may also explain why canola is strong while soybean oil is extending its bull market correction. For the latter, it is quite common for prices to pull back following a breakout from an ascending triangle to test support at previous resistance (at the breakout level). Given the positive fundamentals behind the break into new contract highs, it would be normal technical action to see the support hold with prices rallying from the area (around 70 cents/pound on the July soybean oil contract).

Kansas wheat has finally taken out resistance that has capped rallies for over a month now on the deteriorating situation facing the Southern Plains (weather and crop condition wise), trading over $.20/bushel higher on the day now. That has helped put a bid under corn (and oats) with the standoff blocking fertilizer movement likely helping.

In outside markets, stocks and bonds have turned mixed with the lack of new developments while the U.S. dollar has essentially given up its overnight gains. Energy markets have all turned slightly higher but lack conviction of any sort.