Late summer is here -- and so is drought concern in many primary crop areas of the Southern Plains. A late-July drought update report by the federal National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) -- a multi-agency partnership for drought information and planning -- finds that crop areas of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, which were affected by drought going into midsummer are still in that situation now at the beginning of August.

A big feature of the past month is wide inconsistency in rainfall. Notably, heavy rainfall and flooding in central Texas in mid-July mostly missed areas that were affected the most by drought, according to the NIDIS report. In addition, high temperatures topping 100 degrees Fahrenheit, along with periods of high soil moisture evaporation, have reduced soil moisture in northern Texas and western Oklahoma.

This spring and summer have been wildly variable in southern Kansas when it comes to crop weather extremes. This sector of the Southern Plains had drought in May, floods in June, and then a combination of drought and intense heat during July. This vacillating pattern brought difficult growing and harvesting conditions for winter wheat and row crops.

A look at rainfall from late June to late July shows this wide variance well. During this period, central Texas had extremely heavy rain and flooding during mid-July, with as much of 20 inches of rain for the month recorded near Uvalde, Texas. In contrast, Tripton, Oklahoma, as of July 22 had gone 33 days since the last rainstorm with more than one-tenth of an inch precipitation.

The NIDIS report noted that "Though drought conditions have improved in the Southern Plains overall since June, portions of northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas continue to face significant drought challenges, increasing wildfire risk and harming crops, rangelands, and water supplies." Soil moisture in these areas is below the 10th percentile going into August. In addition, the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas had well-below-normal rainfall during July.

Looking ahead through the first half of August, weather forecasts suggest no meaningful change to offer drought improvement in the affected crop areas of the Southern Plains. DTN forecast maps through mid-August call for near- to below-normal precipitation. Most rainfall from the Southwest Monsoon is indicated to focus on the Intermountain West. This forecast is especially a concern for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, western Oklahoma and southwest Kansas where drought is most intense and crop moisture needs are high.

The onset of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean will be closely tracked for the prospect of increased precipitation during this coming autumn and winter. This longer-range potential does not help the short-term crop moisture situation in the Southern Plains, but it does bring the prospect of improved moisture for the 2027 crop year.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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