In mid-August, the weather pattern set up to feature a zone of consistent, heavy rainfall and severe weather that affected areas from Wyoming to West Virginia. Extremely heavy amounts occurred in central Illinois into western Ohio, causing flooding and wind damage, souring the prospects for corn and soybeans in the area. A similar situation is forecast to set up for the last couple of days of August and the first week of September that could bring about similar issues for parts of the northern tier of the country.

This is primarily due to the movement of an upper-level ridge of high pressure. Currently, the ridge is found over the West and Plains. Extreme heat across the southwestern quadrant of the country has extended into Oklahoma and Texas where daily 100-degree readings have been noted for quite some time now. Though they are getting a break to end this week, the heat will return this weekend as the ridge shifts more toward the southern tier of the country and spreads out through the Southeast next week.

The ridge could extend into the Midwest and Northeast for a period as well. At the same time, an upper-level trough of low pressure will move over the top of that ridge during the last few days of August and set the table for additional upper-level disturbances to move on the northern edge of that ridge through the first week of September. With lots of heat and humidity across the south to tap into, and plenty of disturbances to kick off showers and thunderstorms, this creates a sort of "ring of fire" presentation on the northern edge of the ridge for multiple days.

Clusters of thunderstorms will have the potential to produce hail and strong wind gusts. Areas hit repeatedly by storms could see flooding, and the dreaded word "derecho" -- an extremely strong windstorm that produces hurricane-force winds across a distance of at least 240 miles long -- may be thrown around on occasion if conditions set up just right.

Models are not in agreement on the exact placement, timing, or intensity of these features, and we should not expect them to be. Singling out any area will have to come on a daily basis as we get into the coming weekend as the previous day's rain will have an impact on the following day's development. But the setup is one that will favor these sorts of hazards.

If the models are currently correct, the corridor most likely to see the active weather would be from Montana and Wyoming to the Northeast, farther north than the similar setup two weeks ago. Many of these areas need rain because drought has been slowly growing across the Northern Plains this summer and it has been very dry from the eastern Dakotas into Michigan for at least the last several weeks. Some of those areas have been dry for much of the summer as well. Corn and soybeans are still in the fill stages here and the rain would help to accomplish that. But it is getting a bit on the later side as crops have been maturing faster this year.

Across the south, the high heat and overall lack of precipitation will continue to push areas deeper into drought across the Southern Plains into the Delta. And areas of the Southeast that had seen much better precipitation this summer could start to get a bit too dry as well. While much of this season's crop is well ahead of schedule, any late-planted crops, pastures, and rangelands could suffer in the coming hot and dry conditions.

In between the two zones is a little more uncertain. Some models suggest portions of the southern Corn Belt, from Kansas and Nebraska to along and north of the Ohio River, could be in line for getting some heavy rain as well. Some of these same areas were ones to pick up heavy rain two weeks ago, and an additional influx of heavy rain would exacerbate the problems.

Some of the local rivers are still running above flood stage and more rain would only make this problem worse. For those without tiling, that excess water has been slow to leave and further flooding problems may arise.

And this pattern may be a fairly regular one for much of September. Long-range models and DTN's long-range forecasters suggest that while the overall zone of rainfall potential may be waffling a bit north and south throughout the month, the southern ridge will be hard to truly get rid of. That would bring consecutive weeks of active weather. If the zone changes throughout the month, the risk of flooding is lower. But if areas get hit repeatedly throughout the month, which seems likely to occur somewhere across the Corn Belt, then severe weather and flooding could become problems at the tail end of the growing season.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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