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USDA Cattle on Feed Report Preview
ShayLe Stewart 12/18 12:38 PM

OMAHA (DTN) -- Regardless of what the data in Friday's Dec. 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report shows, it's likely the market won't pay the report much attention, as it will be quickly forgotten in the hustle and bustle of Christmas. Even so, it's important that we track the data and comb through the report for any irregularities that could cause issues later down the road.

Largely, Friday's COF report isn't expected to show anything out of the norm. In terms of the total number of cattle on feed, it may seem counterintuitive for the number of placements to be declining -- all while the total number of cattle on feed remains near year-ago levels. This is largely because the turnover rate in feedlots has declined, as cattle are spending more days on feed. And the sharp decline in feedlots likely stems from four logical points: 1) A large percentage of domestic calves were sold early to capitalize on the strong market; 2) The U.S. simply doesn't have as many feeder cattle/calves to market as compared to years past with the historically low cow herd; 3) With the border still closed to Mexico, placements in the Southern Plains have drastically declined; and 4) Prices were extremely strong through the month of October, which likely affected placements in November.

All in all, I don't expect Friday's COF report will differ much from previous months, as the same market situation remains.

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USDA will release its Dec. 1 Cattle on Feed report at 2 p.m. CST on Friday.

USDA Actual Average Estimate* Range
On Feed Dec. 1 98.2% 97.3-99.0%
Placed in November 90.9% 84.4-96.0%
Marketed in November 88.5% 87.5-89.0%
* Estimates compiled by Dow Jones.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

 
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