As the calendar moves into the final weeks of the meteorological December-January-February winter season, a look at soil moisture shows that, in many crop areas, there is some level of dryness in late winter. The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) noted that U.S. precipitation averaged 1.53 inches in January, well below the 20th century mean of 2.31 inches (34% below). The 1.53 inches average precipitation is the fourth-driest January of the 21st century, trailing only 2003 (1.33 inches), 2014 (1.37 inches), and 2025 (1.37 inches).

USDA's Feb. 10 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin pointed out that the strong winter storm events in late January helped keep dryness from becoming more acute. "Without a large, late-month storm system across the South, East, and lower Midwest, nationally averaged January precipitation would have ranked among the lowest values on record," the bulletin noted.

The NASA GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellite-based soil moisture analysis shows that, as of Feb. 9, above-average soil moisture was found only in the Northern Plains when it comes to crop areas in the central and eastern U.S.

Soil moisture is analyzed as near normal in Kentucky and Tennessee. Elsewhere, there are varying levels of dryness, from moderate to very short. Conditions are notably acute in the southern U.S. "The Deep South, from southern Texas to Florida, was notably dry in January, with negative impacts on pastures and non-irrigated winter crops," stated USDA's Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

In terms of drought assessment, drought coverage shows a consistent level of around 40% nationwide and has been at that level for more than four months going back to mid-September 2025. The influence of a weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean is likely contributing to this cold-season dryness. The Pacific Ocean Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which has been catalogued by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), shows La Nina values with a 30-day reading on Wednesday, Feb. 11 of +9.39. Over the last three months, the SOI readings are: November +13.95; December -1.47; and January +7.99. (Values of +7.0 or higher indicate La Nina)

La Nina is expected to weaken as we go through the rest of February and reach a neutral status during the spring season. Forecast discussions for the rest of the month reflect that waning La Nina and point to a more active and stormier weather pattern across the mainland U.S., offering more chances of precipitation. These prospects will be closely watched and will be well-timed; the active months for moisture usage are approaching quickly.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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