The latest USDA Drought Status Update for the Midwest features a note of concern for the northern Corn Belt. The report, issued June 18, 2026, highlights historic-level dryness during May in the northern U.S. row-crop states. In addition, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) seasonal drought outlook calls for widespread drought development in the northern states through the end of September. (The seasonal drought outlook was also issued June 18.)

The drought assessment and outlook report notes that the meteorological spring season (March-April-May) ended on the dry side -- even entering the record books for dryness. The report cited these highlights related to the northern Corn Belt states:

-- May was historically dry for the Upper Midwest; Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan all recorded one of their top 10 driest Mays (4th, 8th, 9th, respectively) since 1895. Dryness and above-normal temperatures led to drought expansion in north-central Minnesota along with portions of northern Iowa and Wisconsin.

-- Precipitation over the past 30 days is also mostly below normal, with much of the northern U.S. crop areas taking in no more than 50% of normal precipitation during the last week of May and the first three weeks of June.

-- Soil moisture is below average in much of this sector of the Corn Belt. This reduced soil moisture is especially acute in northwest Iowa, southern and eastern Minnesota, southeastern South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska.

Emerging drought issues in north central Minnesota also affect surface water flow, including low flows in the Upper Mississippi River headwaters. In the Mississippi headwaters area above the Twin Cities, two locations are below their low flow thresholds (Brainerd and Grand Rapids, both in Minnesota). The reduced water flow is another example of dryness in the northern Corn Belt. It also leads to some question about how the Upper Mississippi River flow in general will be affected later this summer.

Precipitation forecast through the last few days of June bring some moderate to locally heavy precipitation into the northern Corn Belt states, which suggest some chances for drought easing. For the balance of the summer, there is some difference between public and private weather information providers on how the precipitation trend will evolve. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center calls for near to below normal precipitation. In contrast, DTN's long-range forecast team calls for near to above normal precipitation in the northern Corn Belt during the July-August-September period. The resolution of this question will, of course, be critical to how crops yield at harvest time.

The full USDA June Midwest Drought Status Update is available here: https://www.drought.gov/…

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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Editor's note: Drought has been a major concern for the first half of 2026. Periods of heavy rainfall have helped some areas but haven't been good enough in others. How will this year's building Super El Nino play out for the rest of the summer and fall season? In the upcoming inaugural Beef Industry Exchange webinar, DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick breaks down variability and volatile storm patterns to share how an active summer season could save or doom U.S. pastures.

Don't miss John's session, as well as a high-risk, high-volatility cattle market update with Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart and a discussion on rebuilding the cow herd following extreme challenges, with University of Nebraska Lincoln Beef Systems Extension Educator Aaron Berger. Register now for the free Beef Industry Exchange webinar at 9 a.m. CDT on June 24: https://dtn.link/…

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