Drought areas litter much of the country outside of the Midwest. An active spring pattern has hit some of these areas at times, but not wholly with an intensity that could break through the issues that have been piling up.

Whether it has been because of wildfires, crop failures or reservoir deficits, there are major problems across a large portion of the country heading into summer. But we are finally seeing a weather pattern that favors areas outside of the Midwest, one that has already begun to bring heavy rainfall to areas of the Plains, Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic that should begin to vastly improve drought conditions through the end of May.

VAST IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN US

The first section affected is the southeastern quadrant of the country. The Delta, Tennessee Valley, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic are awash with the colors of D3 to D4 drought on the latest update from the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). Showers have been very hit-or-miss in this region for several months now, leading to the garbled nature of the drought in the region. Some areas have seen some marked improvement prior to this week, including along the Gulf Coast. Parts of south-central Louisiana are free from drought. Meanwhile, other areas getting heavy rain have had their drought intensity budge very little.

However, a front has moved into this region this week and will waffle around through most or all of next week; it will bring daily showers and thunderstorms across the vast majority of the region. Rainfall amounts through May 28 are in the 2- to 4-inch range for just about all of these drought areas except in Florida. There, amounts are in the 1- to 2-inch range, still fairly decent for the widespread drought. Some areas will see more than that, as thunderstorms move over the same areas multiple times across multiple days. That should lead to localized heavier amounts over 6 inches during a seven-day span.

That amount of rainfall should most certainly improve soil moisture throughout the soil column, streamflows, vegetative growth, and all the measures that would indicate drought. Flooding may be a concern, and some severe weather may be possible, but the value of the rainfall cannot be overstated.

PLAINS DROUGHT SEEING LOCALIZED IMPROVEMENT

Another area of the country dealing with intensifying drought has been the Plains. From Montana to Texas, drought is scattered throughout the region, being most intense across Nebraska into eastern Wyoming and across west Texas into southwest Kansas. Wildfires have been an issue all season and the winter wheat crop has suffered irreversible damage. The weather pattern has been more kind to central Texas through eastern Kansas, where a more active storm track has meant frequent rainfall and more limited drought, but much of the region is dealing with some form of unfortunate dryness.

That began to change this week. A pair of upper-level disturbances moved in from the north and west, combining to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms on May 21. They continued together northeast through the region on May 22. Many areas have already seen 1-2 inches of rain across parts of the Dakotas, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, and southwest Kansas into the far northern Texas Panhandle. But showers will continue to sweep through with another inch or so of precipitation for May 22, especially over the Dakotas and eastern Nebraska.

Though a stalled front across Texas should continue shower chances through the weekend, including into Oklahoma, a few drier days of maybe some isolated showers will follow. However, a system moving into the West will spread moisture northward, running into the Rockies next week.

Starting on probably May 26, isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin to form in the High Plains and expand throughout the rest of the week. Coverage will be scattered and not as solid as it will be across the Southeast, but the intensity will be just as heavy, leading to areas of heavy rainfall.

Between both the system and expected showers next week, widespread areas of 1-2 inches of rain are forecast up and down the Plains, with heavier amounts in areas that get hit by multiple rounds of storms. That is most likely over eastern Nebraska and Texas but could fit into just about anywhere in the region. The problem will be that with scattered coverage some areas will be left out of the beneficial rainfall -- which will be very difficult to forecast where -- because of thunderstorm development. While some areas will see drought reduced, there could be some areas that see drought growth if those areas get missed.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST SEES IMPROVEMENTS

Quietly, the Pacific Northwest has been another area that has seen drought building during the spring. The drought has not been nearly as intense as those areas in the Plains and Southeast, but areas of D3 to D4 drought cover portions of Oregon, Idaho and far northeastern Nevada.

Several dry days are ahead, but a system that's moving in next week, which will bring the showers to the Plains, will also bring widespread precipitation to the Pacific Northwest. The system will move in on Memorial Day, May 25, and linger for several days before possibly lifting north into Canada at the end of the week.

Because of the dynamics of mountains and valleys, precipitation amounts will be highly variable across the region and favor the mountains over the valleys, as is typical. Solid amounts over an inch are forecast to fall in the mountains, helping to increase streamflow for local rivers, including the dry Snake River in Idaho. Valley areas will be more difficult to predict, but showers will be in the vicinity throughout the period, increasing soil moisture that will help reduce irrigation. Drought conditions may not be eased as much as those in the Plains or Southeast, but some improvement looks likely.

IMPACT ON DROUGHT MONITOR

But just because areas of heavy rain are set to fall across large areas of drought, it may be unwise to expect major changes across all areas on the drought monitor map. As noted in an article explaining the USDM here, https://www.dtnpf.com/…, rainfall is only one portion of a larger picture for drought. Even extensive heavy rainfall, like what is forecast in the Southeast, may only bring up drought conditions for small areas with still large coverage of severe or extreme drought in areas that receive heavy rain.

Drought is also a lagging indicator, and while rain will fall before the data cutoff time of early Tuesday morning, rain that falls after that will be noticed by plants and soils before it is updated on the USDM. Therefore, improvements to the USDM may occur a week or even later after the heavy rainfall event, as the impacts from the rainfall are noticed more and more with time across these areas.

Drought will also not be eliminated in all areas. Especially for those in the Pacific Northwest and Plains, the rainfall will not be widespread or heavy enough to completely eliminate the drought. And for those in the Southeast, the drought is too deep for one week of rainfall to eliminate as well. This will take multiple events of the same magnitude moving forward. But just because drought may remain does not mean that there will continue to be negative effects. The direction the drought is moving is more important than the classification category and all of these areas should be on the improving side through the end of May.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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