Following the choppy saga of events that has recently shaken out in the cattle complex, it almost feels as though the board's movement has been more or less a game of ping-pong, unsure of whether or not the next hit will send the market up a couple of dollars or down a buck or two.

But looking at where the market sits, what challenges lie ahead, and what may potentially arise as support this week, the market again has its work cut out for it. Last week both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts were able to rally above their 40-day moving averages, but if fundamental support doesn't arise soon, the contracts stand a strong chance at falling below that threshold once again.

Fingers crossed, but it is assumed that fed cash cattle prices will trade at least steady again this week, and there's a chance that prices could even add $1.00 or $2.00 to the market. We've yet to see any trade develop in the fed cash cattle sector, but feedlot managers have been willing to wait the week out in hopes of better prices in recent weeks.

Hopefully this week their determination will remain the same and lend the futures complex some much-needed fundamental support.

The other supportive factor complementary to the market this week is the increase in beef demand.

Seasonally, this isn't a time one would suspect beef prices to rise, but demand has been strong this week, and that could encourage packers to be more aggressive in the cash market.

But unless greater fundamental support develops, there's a strong chance that even though traders have been supportive of the complex this week, and that there's a bullish undertone alive and well in the market, traders could let the contracts fall back below the 40-day moving average if they're not reassured by stronger market fundamentals.

Unfortunately, it's not likely that the fed cash cattle market will trade ahead of Thursday at the earliest this week, but even if trade is delayed and the contracts soften slightly because of the delay, seeing an uptick in the cash market late this week would lend support to next week's market, and higher prices are higher prices; improved fundamental support delayed is better than none at all.

As the week progresses, keep a close eye on the fed cash cattle market, as it could be the deciding factor in whether traders let the complex chop sideways above its 40-day moving average, or a downward trend resumes.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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