Starting last Thursday, we saw the cattle complex begin to reach for higher prices following the last two months of severe deterioration. But as traders and cattlemen alike assess the marketplace and try to gain an understanding of whether this rally will be successful or not, there are a couple of factors that we need to mull over and analyze.

First, without the help of stronger market fundamentals, it's going to be difficult for both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts to successfully conquer the market's closest resistance at its 40-day moving average. The spot October feeder cattle contract is closer to reaching that resistance threshold than the spot October live cattle contract is -- which could mean that the feeder cattle market's upward potential is going to be limited sooner that the live cattle markets. And while yes, fed cash cattle prices did trade mixed last week with some higher prices -- traders are going to likely need more confidence and support than what the fed cash cattle market can lend right now. And seasonally boxed beef prices aren't expected to lend the market much support until late in the fourth quarter -- which doesn't help the market much right now.

Last week Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $344 to $345, which is steady to $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, but Southern live cattle traded anywhere from $219 to $223, but mostly at $222 to $223, which is steady to $1.00 higher.

But on the contrary, from a purely technical standpoint, the market is eager to trade higher and recover some of the position lost over the last two months. From the late June high to Monday's close, the spot October live cattle contract has fallen $23.98 in a little over two months. And during that same time, the October feeder cattle contract has fallen $42.90, which highlights the extreme decline the market has seen over the last two months and does logically support the market's natural desire to trade higher.

But even so, we know and understand that in today's fast-paced marketplace, that the law of reason doesn't always reign over the cattle complex -- especially when the market has become accustomed to headline news that can wipe away all confidence within a minute's time. So, while I remain hopeful that the market will regain some position in the upcoming days, I also know that without strong backing and fundamental support, the rally will likely only gain minimal position, and that external pressure is always looming.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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