November canola is down $11.50/mt, December soybean oil is down 1.04 cents/pound, November European rapeseed is down 4.00 euro/mt and October Malaysian palm oil is down 0.06%. December oats are up 3/4 cents/bushel while November European corn is up 0.50 euros/mt. September crude oil is up $1.16/barrel, September ULSD is up $0.0170/gallon, and the September Canadian dollar is down 0.00065 at 0.72090. The September U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.029 at 99.505 and the September Brazilian real is down 0.00010 at 0.19150.

Despite bullish headlines throughout the morning, grain and oilseed markets have turned mixed. Given the losses are seen in canola, European rapeseed, wheat and corn --- there is most likely another rumor circulating of progress towards a truce of some sort for the Black Sea region, although nothing has surfaced publicly that I have been able to find. If so, the failed attempts at market manipulation in the past have simply presented good buying opportunities for those so inclined.

Soybeans have held on to good gains with a prominent crop consultant (Michael Cordonnnier) lowering his row crop yield estimates due to damage from the recent storms throughout the Corn Belt, adding to the voices wondering how close this will be to the 2020 derecho that did such significant damage. Markets will also be sensitive to field reports from day 2 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour with the east leg going through Indiana and into Illinois, while the west group tours Nebraska.

In the meantime, energy markets have added to overnight gains as the Middle East situation appears to be deteriorating. President Trump put out a social media post declaring the Strait of Hormuz "New U.S. Territory", suggesting again that the U.S. was in control and all mines had been cleared. Meanwhile, Iran continues to attack vessels trying to transit without permission and just launched another round of ballistic missiles at the UAE. And as a potentially ominous sign, China has blocked all its vessels from transiting either, the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (into the Red Sea to access Saudi Arabia's back door crude oil export channel) due to security concerns.

The resulting rally in energy markets has weighed further on stocks while bonds have remained resilient, turning quietly higher on the day. The U.S. dollar has drifted off slightly on the developments.

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