According to Statistics Canada, July 31 stocks of almost all Canadian principal field crops were above the August Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) estimates thanks to larger-than-expected on-farm stocks. That comes after Statistics Canada's 2025 implementation of a "new methodology" that uses "historical survey estimates and administrative data" to arrive at an estimate of on-farm stocks. In effect, this diminishes the impact of survey responses and increases the importance of their interpretation of data. This also makes it very difficult to estimate what they may decide, and how accurate that may be.

The greatest surprise likely came from the wheat results, with total wheat stocks as of July 31 coming in at 6.649 million metric tons (mmt), according to Statistics Canada. That compared to just 5.874 mmt in AAFC's August estimate. It was also a significant increase over the 4.240 mmt total for last year and above 2023-24's 5.309 mmt.

On a percentage basis, durum wheat accounted for the larger portion of the difference, with Statistics Canada pegging the July 31 total at 1.102 mmt when AAFC expected it would only be 642,000 metric tons (mt) in its August update. The total comes in far above last year's 512,000 mt or 2023-24's 669,000 mt.

The wheat excluding durum total was also higher than expected, with Statistics Canada pegging the July 31 stocks at 5.547 mmt when AAFC expected it would be 5.231 mmt in its August update. The total also comes in well above last year's 3.728 mmt or 2023-24's 4.641 mmt.

It's worth noting Statistics Canada assumed total wheat inventories were that high thanks to a 36.4% increase in on-farm stocks based on their new methodology. Again, this adds to concerns over accuracy.

Barley had a similar story, as Statistics Canada came in above AAFC's August update. The former pegged July 31 barley stocks at 940,000 mt while the latter had expected it would be 870,000 mt. Both would be considered tight compared to last year's 1.249 mmt or 2023-24's 1.152 mmt. In this case, Statistics Canada estimated on-farm stocks would be 37.2% below last year. Regardless, it confirms tight barley supplies for 2026-27, with demand rationing expected to be required.

Oats round out the cereals with the greatest miss of all on a percentage basis. Statistics Canada is pegging the July 31 stocks at 577,000 mt, when AAFC expected it would be 750,000 mt in its August update. The total comes in close to last year's 507,000 mt but below 2023-24's 670,000 mt. It will also increase the need for demand rationing given AAFC's current expectation that oat production will fall 25% from last year thanks to a smaller seeded area and a return to more normal yields.

On the oilseed front, canola stocks as of July 31 came in at a comfortable 1.899 mmt, according to Statistics Canada (in green on the accompanying chart). That compares to 1.725 mmt in AAFC's August estimate but well below AAFC's July update of 2.725 mmt, leaving it unlikely to have a lasting impact on prices. It is still a significant increase over the 1.597 mmt total for last year but well below 2023-24's 3.225 mmt. As seen in most cases, higher on-farm stocks total accounted for all of the increase in total stocks (using the new methodology).

On the pulse side, the same story played out with dramatically higher on-farm stocks resulting in July 31 stocks above AAFC August estimates. For dry peas, Statistics Canada pegged the July 31 stocks at 1.182 mmt when AAFC expected it would be 1.040 mmt in its August update. The total comes in well above last year's 489,000 mt or 2023-24's 299,000 mt.

Lentils had a similar result, with Statistics Canada pegging the July 31 stocks at 1.284 mmt when AAFC expected it would be 1.215 mmt in its August update. The total comes in well above last year's 561,000 mt or 2023-24's 165,000 mt.

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Mitch Miller can be reached at mitchmiller.dtn@gmail.com

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