It has been a tumultuous week. I say that for a bunch of reasons, but of course one of the main reasons is the "blue tsunami" that swept through the United States last week.

We don't do politics in this column, but with such a repudiation of the American administration, it will be interesting to see any economic changes that come from Congress being switched to the Democrats. I don't see the American President changing much. However, clearly there is a sea change on almost everything down south. That surely will have an effect on Canadian agriculture somewhere along the line.

On the Canadian side of the border, we have harvest progressing, but we also had the Canadian budget announced today in Parliament. In the old days, budgets were cloaked in secrecy, but not anymore. Budget details now usually leak out before the budget is announced. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne titled the budget "Masters of our Destiny," an obvious play on Canada forging our own way other than trading with the United States. The budget plan introduced $142 billion worth of tax incentives and spending over the next five years to spur productivity.

As per usual in Canadian federal budgets, the deficit always gets a lot of attention. That deficit for 2026/2027 is projected to be $62.3 billion, or 1.8% of GDP. This is projected to be the same next year before dropping to 57.6 billion in 2028/2029. Public debt charges now will be $60.2 billion per year, and this is the first time that these costs now exceed the Canada health transfer, which was $57.4 billion last year. Needless to say, it's a lot of money, and deficits always seem to make headlines. I will let the next week come to me before I get into any specific details on anything to do with agriculture.

I say that because these budget documents are enormous and agriculture doesn't usually get a lot of play. For instance, this budget's single largest line item is something called the productivity mega deduction, which will be costing the federal government $36.1 billion over the next five years. It allows all businesses to immediately write off 100% of the cost of new equipment and capital investments, which effectively slashes the marginal tax rate on new investments. Its application at the farm level will be interesting to see. It might open up avenues for investment on the farm that we could have never envisioned before.

In terms of other spending, I'm sure we'll be hearing more about infrastructure spending as well as defence spending as we go ahead. We have committed to 5% of GDP for NATO into the future. We have also committed to big projects such as the Port of Churchill and others. In this budget, $31 billion is earmarked toward the Mackenzie Valley Highway construction. Opening up the interior and the northern parts of this country continues to be a priority.

In the big picture of things, some of these new budgetary measures are supposed to help us be "Masters of our own Destiny," as the budget title denotes. There are some big bets here with regard to spending an awful lot of money, and hopefully it all works out. Our political opposition here in Canada has already vowed to vote against the government. In fact, they believe we are spending too much money. With the majority in Parliament, that will be more about political posturing than political reality. I only wish our Canadian agricultural policy could be more dynamic in such a political environment.

In many ways, that ship has sailed, but we could always hope. Grain markets have been moribund over the last several weeks as long-term speculators have been selling. In some ways, it doesn't meet the optic test as prices have fallen considerably, but on the other hand, it is harvest time. That post-harvest rally that I mused about a week ago is certainly welcome to start up at any time.

In lieu of that, December corn has now fallen $1.10 per bushel since Sept. 2. Soybeans are particularly oversold, with January soybeans having fallen nine straight days to $11.88 a bushel. Major support level is just below at $11.75 a bushel. There simply has been more fund liquidation and a really good forecast for Brazil soybeans currently growing down south. Where is that super El Nino when you need it?

The answer to that will come on some unexpected Tuesday. We might wake up, and Brazil has turned hot and dry. On the other hand, maybe some of the political machinations that are going on now in the United States and Canada will set the stage for better times ahead. Mountains were moved last week. The challenge for Canadian farmers will be to navigate through all of this uncertainty while remaining focused on the things we can control. There is always another chapter on our farms, and sometimes the biggest changes come from the most unexpected places. If we are going to be masters of our own destiny, perhaps that is the best place to start.

Philip Shaw can be reached at philip@philipshaw.ca

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