If it's not one thing, it's another. And the hurdle we need to foresee is that Friday's Cattle on Feed report could unveil sharply higher placements compared to a year ago.

The Dow Jones pre-report estimate for Friday's Cattle on Feed report anticipates placements could range anywhere from 96.2% to 108.5%, with the average of the analyst's estimates 104.6% compared to a year ago. And you and I both know whenever the market sees placements "greater than a year ago" it sends the futures complex into a tizzy and can affect the market's morale moving forward.

So, let's talk through what this could mean moving forward.

First, given the widespread drought throughout most of the Western states and the Southeast U.S., higher feedlot placements pass the smell test as there simply is not enough grass to be had right now. The Livestock Marketing Information Center shared, as of the first week of May, 48% of the beef cow herd was in states with 40% of their pastures rated poor to very poor; a year ago, only 10% of the beef cow herd was in states under similar pasture conditions. Unfortunately, for most regions experiencing drought to that degree, there has not been much moisture accumulated in the last three weeks to help that figure. If anything, it has gotten worse.

So, what does this mean moving forward? For the immediate future, it means Friday's Cattle on Feed report could wreak havoc on the futures complex. I am hopeful the cash market will still be able to rally aggressively as packers know market-ready supplies of cattle are extremely thin. Feedlot managers know this too and have remained committed to advancing the market as much as they can. Unfortunately, what this means for the market long-term is there could be more fed cattle available from late September through October. It is important to note this because, historically, this has been the time period in which a large percentage of cow-calf producers have marketed their calf crop. But if there is a surplus of fed cattle available during that time, which could soften fed cash cattle prices, that may not be the most opportunistic time to market your feeder cattle this year.

Last year, feeder cattle prices peaked during the second week of October. However, as you all know, no two years are ever identical. Note that Friday's report could wreak havoc on the futures complex in the days following and there will be more market-ready fats available next fall if placements were indeed greater in April. If you have not yet honed your marketing strategy this year for your feeder calves, it is time to do so, friends.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

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