November canola is down $15.00/mt, December soybean oil is down 1.51 cents/pound, November European rapeseed is up 3.75 euro/mt and December Malaysian palm oil is down 1.12%. December oats are down 4 1/2 cents/bushel while November European corn is up 2.75 euros/mt. November crude oil is up $2.52/barrel, November ULSD is down $.0076/gallon, and the December Canadian dollar is down .00135 at .70410. The December U.S. Dollar Index is up .644 at 101.835, and the December Brazilian real is down .00245 at 0.19005.

It took a while for grain and oilseed markets to show what beginning-of-the-month strategies were set to be deployed but as prices began selling off again, it seems to be clear that additional long liquidation will have to be endured.

The soybean complex is leading the way lower despite the 10 million bushels cut from 2025-26 ending stocks as reported Wednesday and the better-than-expected weekly export sales totals released this morning. Not to mention heavy rains across Iowa and easter Nebraska over the past few days that were adding to near record September rainfall totals and extending the resulting harvest delays.

Rotting crops in the fields don't seem to matter to traders as long as interest rates keep spiking and taking the U.S. dollar higher along with them. At the September Fed meeting, chairman Warsh pointed out that spot corn, wheat, soybeans and (energy) crack spreads will be the key in raising rates. If those go higher, the Fed Funds rate will likely need to go higher. If those don't or decline, there will likely be no secondary inflation impacts from the energy price spike, and the Fed won't likely need to raise the overnight rate. Coincidence or not, the specified ag markets have fallen sharply since he put the spotlight on them. And with over $40 trillion in government debt, it has been very clear that lower interest rates are the objective, especially prior to the midterm elections.

Energy markets are still mixed after Trump threatened to impose a U.S. diesel export ban unless the EU agrees to release 120 million barrels of emergency reserves of diesel over the next 6 months. With that, crude oil and gasoline remain sharply higher while diesel is still down on the day.

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