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Plains, Prairies Quick Takes
4/29 12:21 PM

May canola is up $15.20/mt with July canola up $17.50/mt, July soybean oil is up .83 cents/pound, August European rapeseed is up 7.50 euro per mt and July Malaysian palm oil is down .15%. July oats are down 3 1/4 cents/bushel. June crude oil is up $5.74 per barrel, June ULSD is up $.1874 per gallon, and the June Canadian dollar is up .00060 at .73290. The June U.S. D0ollar Index is up .139 at 98.615 and the May Brazilian real is down .00070 at 0.20005.

This is worth repeating from the DTN Plains, Prairies Opening Comments considering its importance in Wednesday's rally. "Canola is sharply higher thanks to the extended gains in soybean oil and energy markets. The soybean product rallies have resulted in the May canola crush margin hitting another record of $371.21/mt Tuesday according to the ICE crush margin calculation. That compares to $111.95/mt a year ago. For the record, the $259.26/mt difference represents a $5.88/bushel improvement in the canola crush margin in a year. It appears there is room for canola seed values to improve now that they are breaking through resistance. It's also worth repeating that the last time soybean oil was at these levels, canola was trading around $870/mt." Given the rally Wednesday, despite that these facts have been around for some time, it appears to be another case of it doesn't matter -- until it matters.

Helping attract attention to the oilseed complex, energy markets are sharply higher following a bullish EIA weekly inventory report. Record exports, amid declining imports, resulted in drawdowns that were much larger than expected, even with news that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks were drawn down by 7.1 million barrels on the week ended Apr. 24. Crude oil inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels compared to estimates of a .1-million-barrel draw. Gasoline was similar with a 6.1-million-barrel drawdown in inventories when the estimate was looking for a 2.1-million-barrel drawdown. Distillates (diesel) followed suit, down 4.5 million barrels when the trade was expecting a 1.8-million-barrel decline. And that highlights the problem with trying force Iran to concede with a prolonged blockade and resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The soybean complex has rallied on the news with soybean oil leading the way. Corn and wheat are higher but much more subdued than on Tuesday.

In outside markets, Treasury declines are accelerating as the potential for higher-for-longer energy prices takes hold. Stocks are more resilient, trading mixed at midday while the U.S. dollar remains marginally higher.

 
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