May canola is down $2.70/mt, May soybean oil is down .34 cents/pound, May European rapeseed is up 2.50 euro per mt and June Malaysian palm oil is down 2.26%. May oats are up 7 1/2 cents/bushel. May crude oil is up $1.35 per barrel, May ULSD is down $.1045 per gallon, and the June Canadian dollar is down .00060 at .72515. The June U.S. Dollar Index is down .109 at 98.480 and the May Brazilian real is up .00170 at 0.19815.

Crude oil is firming into midday as the prospects for any meaningful ceasefire talks this weekend appears bleaker all the time. Iran has suggested it won't even talk until the ceasefire includes Lebanon (officially) and just now added they demand frozen assets be released first as well. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite Trump's demands for it to be open as a condition of the ceasefire. On top of that, there is fighting within Iran over leadership and authority. The military (IRGC) claims to be in charge and are trying to limit the negotiators powers (who the IRGC claims to be simply figureheads). In the meantime, Israel is currently under attack from Lebanon and Trump is warning that he is preparing the military in case Iran fails to comply.

With the escalation in rhetoric, ag markets are firming up, led by soybeans and soybean meal. Soybean oil had been sharply lower on unwinding of long soybean oil/short soybean meal spreads while corn was sharply lower, testing support, but both have responded to firming energy markets and have cut their losses. Canola has followed the soybean oil lead and remains quietly lower on the day.

In outside markets, Treasuries are weaker on the increase in crude oil prices and a hot (as expected) CPI release. Equity markets remain mixed with the U.S. dollar still under pressure.

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