Across southern Alberta, 18.2% of the sub-surface soil moisture was in poor condition as of July 28. According to Alberta's latest crop report, released on July 28, it was noted that hot weather and less rainfall led to notably declining soil moisture conditions in central and southern areas of the province during the third week of July.

Through mid-August, a pattern change could be in store for the southwest Canadian Prairies that includes more rainfall.

During July, the storm track largely favored the northern Canadian Prairies as upper-air ridging from the western United States built into the southern Prairies. Upper-air ridging typically contributes to hotter and drier conditions, and that's exactly what southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan experienced. Precipitation during July was around 1-3 millimeters (0.05-0.1 inches) below average, and temperatures were above average. For example, Calgary, Alberta, during July has an average high temperature around 24 degrees Celsius (75 degrees Fahrenheit). However, Calgary had 23 days during July where high temperatures exceeded the average, with the hottest day being July 18 with a high of 33 C (91 F).

Even with the dry and hot conditions in the southern Prairies recently, many of their major crops are still rated in good-to-excellent condition. Alberta's latest crop progress report stated that southern Alberta still had 79.8% of its major crops, which include spring wheat, canola and dry peas, rated in good-to-excellent condition as of July 28. The latest crop progress reports for the provinces of Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan can be found here: https://cerealscanada.ca/…. Luckily, most of the Prairies had a wetter pattern this spring and into early summer to get crops off to a healthy start before the pattern flipped in July.

The southwest Prairies are on the verge of a pattern change as an upper-air ridge from the western U.S. breaks down and allows some upper-air troughs from the Gulf of Alaska to swing through. This will begin during the upcoming weekend and last through at least the middle of August. As multiple storm systems from the Gulf of Alaska swing through, they should offer some increased moisture to southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan.

Through Aug. 13, DTN is forecasting up to 20-30 mm (0.8-1.2 inches) of rain across southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan. However, there will likely be some higher totals exceeding 50 mm (2 inches) in some spots. The wetter pattern will be a welcome change from the hot and dry month of July in these areas.

If more moisture isn't received soon in the southwest Prairies, some of the area's filling crops could mature even faster and lead to increased stress for plants setting seeds. Southwest Saskatchewan has 51% of its cropland topsoil moisture rated short, but hopefully the rainy pattern to come will shift the majority of topsoil moisture to adequate levels.

To find more international weather conditions and your local forecast from DTN, head over to https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.