WASHINGTON (DTN) -- U.S. agricultural exports remain heavily concentrated among a handful of established trading partners, but future growth in food and feed demand will increasingly come from developing and middle-income economies, according to a new report.

North Dakota State University economist Shawn Arita, author of the report, points to demographic and market trends that could limit future growth in some established markets. Countries such as Mexico, Canada, China, Japan and South Korea account for about two-thirds of U.S. agricultural trade.

By 2034, he projects Africa to account for 38% of the increase in total food availability, followed by India at 30%, South Asia at 10% and China at 2%.

Arita serves as associate director of the Agricultural Risk Policy Center at NDSU. The report, "Building the Next Generation of US Agriculture Export Markets," was published by the Farm Journal Foundation.

Established trading partners have provided stability for farmers and exporters because of their purchasing volume and longstanding commercial relationships. That trade network has "delivered enormous value to American farmers and agribusinesses," Arita said.

But he points to changing populations and demographic limitations in some of those countries.

Japan and South Korea have aging populations and capped food consumption rates. U.S. suppliers already hold strong positions in Canada and Mexico, while trade relations remain contentious. Meanwhile, reliance on China has demonstrated how quickly changes in Chinese demand can affect commodity prices, basis levels, transportation demand and farm revenue.

"A policy dispute, regulatory action, or sourcing shift in one major destination can move billions of dollars in exports within a single year," the report stated.

DIVERSIFYING MARKETS

Arita points to a two-part approach to expanding future U.S. agricultural trade: diversifying commercial markets while maintaining food-security and international-aid programs that can help build demand in emerging economies.

The first part is already underway under the Trump administration. USDA has said the administration has reached 18 reciprocal trade agreements with countries beyond the U.S.'s largest agricultural trading partners.

"There is a very clear and present prioritization to diversify away from China, diversification away from these major markets," Arita told DTN.

That effort includes programs such as the Market Access Program (MAP), Foreign Market Development Program (FMD) and Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP), some of which restrict the use of funds in larger markets.

Trade agreements with major trading partners such as Canada, China and the European Union have been more difficult to negotiate and maintain.

Foreign food assistance and agricultural development programs provide another avenue for establishing commercial trade relationships.

"If we look at our markets that we are commercially successful today, there is this long history of U.S. engagement through food security," Arita said.

In 2024, nine of the 10 largest U.S. agricultural export destinations had received Food for Peace assistance earlier in their development.

The future of development aid, however, is less certain. Food for Peace funding fell sharply from nearly $5.5 billion in fiscal 2024 to an initial $452 million agreement for fiscal 2025, before increasing to $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026 discretionary funding.

U.S. contributions to the World Food Program also fell from about $4.45 billion in 2024 to $2.07 billion in 2025, according to WFP data.

The 16 Feed the Future Innovation Labs at land-grant colleges were also cut in 2025. Kansas State University's Climate Resilient Cereal Innovation Lab was the only lab to remain. USDA has since offered funding for five to eight labs, which are currently being applied for by schools.

"If we were to see a total reduction in a lot of these programs (Feed the Future Labs), then that could risk some of the long-term market development," he said.

Food security can serve as a precursor to commercial market development.

"By strategically refining and coordinating U.S. foreign policy and agricultural development programs, the U.S. can precondition emerging markets for private sector actors such as cooperators, traders, and U.S. businesses to support future trade," the paper stated.

Arita described the current period as a "transitioning phase" for trade policy and aid programs, arguing they need better alignment.

That could include linking trade promotion with agricultural development efforts to help countries build the infrastructure and purchasing power needed to become long-term U.S. customers, he said.

In an address to the United Nations General Assembly on Tuesday, President Donald Trump emphasized national sovereignty and said, "There is no global government ... And while I am president, there will be no global taxes."

Read the full report, "Building the Next Generation of US Agriculture Export Markets," here: https://www.farmjournalfoundation.org/….

Jake Zajkowski can be reached at jake.zajkowski@dtn.com

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