Editor's Note:

As the year comes to a close, we've once again asked the DTN/Progressive Farmer reporting team to pick out the most significant, most fun, or otherwise their favorite, story of 2025. We hope you enjoy our writers' choices, continuing the series with today's story by DTN Contributing Canadian Grains Analyst Mitch Miller, who explains what blog he was proudest to write -- whether or not people loved or hated it.

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On May 29, I wrote, "The North American Beef Herd: A Slow Death by Prosperity?" In it, I questioned, " On the flipside of being worried about when the good times will end: What if the escalation in price continues to be fueled by a downward spiral of the beef herd fed in part by the escalation in price?"

This blog would not likely be considered my "favorite" based on subject matter, but it's the one I'm most proud of -- for, as my colleague DTN Livestock Analyst ShayLe Stewart so eloquently pointed out when I asked permission to submit it -- "I love and hate this piece all at the same time."

As I summarized in that story, "Feeder cattle's dramatic rise to record highs is certainly cause for celebration in the short term -- and anxiety for long-term planning."

The discussion is as important today as it was at the end of May when it was first posted. Even more so since Oct. 16 when President Donald Trump suggested "we did something" to bring the price of beef down.

In the days that followed and up until the fallout from the surprising Tyson plant closure announcement had run its course on Nov. 25, feeder cattle futures dropped 22.8% or $86.70/cwt while live cattle futures fell 17.3% or $43/cwt.

Unfortunately for the consumer, none of the rhetoric helped at the retail level with choice boxed beef prices actually increasing during that same time -- from $366.11 to $370.09. That was because all the noise over the subject did nothing to materially increase supply or decrease demand.

What it did do was much worse than the short-term break in price, as that has already recovered by half. But it intensified the concerns brought up in this original blog. The only tangible impact it appeared to have had was severely damaging the confidence it takes for producers (and the lenders that back them) to take on the risks needed to increase the breeding herd. Thereby, reducing the future domestic beef supply and making matters worse.

So, since the end of May when this was first posted, we now have even higher cattle prices including those for breeding stock, much more price volatility and risk, and damage done to confidence after being repeatedly told that the goal of the Trump administration is to lower beef prices.

This makes this the 2025 blog I am most proud of, as opposed to being my favorite. See the original at https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Mitch Miller can be reached at mitch.mill@dtn.com

Follow him on social platform X @mgreymiller

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