OMAHA (DTN) -- China ended 2025 by announcing tighter controls on beef imports, capping its tariff-rate quotas for three years and raising the over-quota tariff rate to 55%.

China and Hong Kong combined were the No. 2 market for U.S. beef exports in 2024, totaling $1.98 billion in value, behind only South Korea.

U.S. beef exports to China have fallen dramatically this year because of the trade war, but the moves could limit U.S. efforts to return those export volumes back up to normal levels.

China's Ministry of Commerce issued a notice following an investigation that began last year over whether rising beef imports were causing damage to domestic suppliers. The report stated China would implement tighter country-specific quotas and additional tariffs for three years starting Jan. 1, 2026, through Dec. 31, 2028.

Under China's tariff quota volumes, the U.S. would be limited to 164,000 metric tons in 2026, which is significantly higher than U.S. volumes sent to mainland China this year because of the tariff wars. Through September, the U.S. had only shipped 57,050 metric tons of beef to mainland China, down 57% from a year earlier.

China's cap for U.S. quotas is lower than 2024 volumes, which was 179,464 metric tons, and 2023 at 189,191 metric tons.

In 2022, U.S. suppliers shipped 242,000 metric tons of beef to mainland China, which also topped a record in sales at $2.14 billion.

TARIFF WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN BRAZILIAN SALES

China's move will impact some beef trade flows, especially for Brazil and Argentina, which have seen their beef exports to China explode in recent years.

DatamarNews, a South American trade statistics company, reported last week that Brazilian beef exports to China through November topped $8 billion U.S. dollars and constituted 1.49 million metric tons in volume. Brazil is the world's biggest beef exporter and China accounts for more than half of the country's sales.

Under China's tariff-rate quota chart, Brazilian quota volumes would be restricted to 1.1 mmt in 2025.

Argentina, which sent 595,000 metric tons of beef to China in 2024, would see its tariff quota capped at 511,000 metric tons.

Australia's beef exports to Brazil through August had reached 182,507 metric tons, which is up more than 50% compared to 2024. Australia's quota would be capped at just over 200,000 metric tons for 2026.

TARIFFS HAVE SLOWED US BEEF SALES

U.S. beef exports to China already had fallen precipitously since tariff disputes began with the Trump administration.

Sales of U.S. beef to China and Hong Kong dropped from $1.45 billion in the first nine months of 2024 down to $799 million, or a decline of 45%, according to data generated by the U.S. Meat Export Federation.

By tonnage, U.S. sales had fallen from 157,000 metric tons in the first nine months of 2024 down to 90,442 in 2025.

Combined sales for China and Hong Kong have fallen below South Korea, Japan and Mexico.

Sales to mainland China fell 58% while sales to Hong Kong actually increased 7% throughout the year.

USDA export data splits sales to China and Hong Kong as separate destinations, but USMEF combines those sales statistics.

Mainland China essentially stopped buying U.S. beef in May as the trade war heated up. From May to September, the U.S. only sold $38 million in beef to mainland China

LITTLE US MARKET REACTION

Fed cattle prices for February were up $1 on Wednesday, reflecting the market did not expect to see a major impact from China's decision.

U.S. domestic demand has remained strong for beef despite high retail prices for beef. The U.S. also has increased its own imports of beef from Brazil and Argentina throughout 2025 as well.

Chris Clayton can be reached at Chris.Clayton@dtn.com

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